The Gr 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes has attracted a fine field and should be as eagerly awaited as any other big race on Saturday's card. There's plenty of talent on show in what is set to be a highly competitive and probably hard-fought event, but Covenant may be the one to side with. Trainer Mike Bass's charge has had an identical build-up to her victory in this race last year and looks well set to double up.
Covenant's win here in 2011 set the seal on a superb treble as she had won the Southern Cross and Sceptre Stakes in her two previous starts. This year she had to settle for third in the Southern Cross but there was nothing wrong with that effort, given that she was returning from a layoff of nearly five months and that the winner of that race was a certain Val De Ra. She then displayed her trademark turn of foot to despatch Trinity House and complete the Sceptre double at the beginning of this month. She's at the top her game, then, has proven herself over the course and distance and has regular pilot Karl Neisius in the irons. This is too competitive a field for her to be rated a good thing but she certainly ticks all the boxes and makes the most appeal on balance.
Trainer Mike de Kock sends out a two-pronged attack in Welwitschia and Gibraltrar Blue and they have both shown enough to play a big role here. Welwithschia is lightly raced, with only seven runs under her belt but she has already built up a fine record: she's recorded four wins and three places and those defeats have come in graded races won by Igugu, Dancewiththdevil and Pierre Jourdan! There's nothing wrong with that sort of form and she comes into the race fit and well after a comfortable warm-up win a fortnight ago. Anthony Delpech rides, she's well drawn and, being bred to northern time and thus a few months behind her locally-bred rivals, has more scope for improvement than most in this field. She must have a great chance of taking top honours.
Gibraltar Blue was favourite for this race last year but tired late into third after making the running. She won over a mile previously but her record suggests that she is best over shorter when racing at this level and chances are that she will find something to catch her in the closing stages. Her last run, when fading to eighth in the Queens Plate, is readily forgiven as she was taking on a seriously hot field and was entitled to tire late after setting a proper gallop. She'll find the opposition here more to her liking, is also well drawn and has a great rapport with Anton Marcus, so is well worth including in trifectas and quartets.
Not too long ago, Ebony Flyer would have been considered an automatic favourite for this race, and understandably so, but her Queens Plate effort set the alarm bells ringing and the jury is currently out as to whether Justin Snaith's charge has fully recovered from the respiratory problems that saw her sidelined for ten months earlier in her career. To be fair, she did nothing wrong in her first three starts following that break (and corrective surgery) but the Queens Plate represented her first real test post-op. The fact of her defeat is not in itself a concern as she had some high-class opposition in front of her and sixth place was not exactly the end of the world in such strong field. The manner of it, however, is a worry as she fell away early in the straight, plodding on at one pace, and never looked like challenging for honours at any stage. It's certainly not the intention to write her off after a single disappointing run and, make no mistake, she is capable of blowing this field away if she is at her formidable best. If there's anything amiss, though, she is going to find it hard to match the finishing speed of the likes of Covenant and Welwitschia. A wide barrier position is also a bit of a dampener but, in her favour, she has the services of Felix Coetzee, which will go a long way towards negating the draw.
Happy Archer is not the most consistent filly around but she has plenty of ability, as evidenced by Gr 1 victories in the Thekwini Stakes and Garden Province Stakes, where she beat the likes of Beach Beauty. She was beaten by the draw in the Flamboyant Stakes on New Years Day, a race she really should have won on sheer ability, and probably did well in the circumstances to finish within 0.70 lengths of the winner in fifth place, after having had too much use made of her in the middle stages. She's got plenty of boxes ticked in her own right - Weichong Marwing rides for Sean Tarry and she jumps from a good draw, so she will certainly make a race of it if at her best.
The above quintet represent the pick of the older fillies and mares but Barcelona Winter and Frequent Flyer deserve a mention for very consistent form and having both been placed behind Ebony Flyer in recent starts (Barcelona Winter was also third to Covenant in the Sceptre Stakes). They're both drawn well and although it's a stretch to see either of them actually winning this, a minor placing is not out of the question and both deserve to take their place in this line-up.
Dance With Al is another one who has done well enough in the past to make the frame here at her best but she seems to have gone off the boil of late and it's hard to make a case for her on current form.
There are two representatives from the 3-year-old ranks and they are both well nicely in under the weight-for-age conditions of the race, if the official ratings are anything to go by. Trinity House is likely to attract her share of support after a very good second to Princess Victoria in the Cape Fillies Guineas, followed by a similar effort behind Covenant in the Sceptre Stakes. She's certainly earned her place here, then, but there to have to be some doubts, though, about her ability to see out a true-run mile against this level of opposition - her Guineas run saw her jump from pole position and, under a great tactical ride, carve out a soft lead which almost her steal the race. She now jumps from widest of all and, with Gibraltar Blue in the line-up, it's hard to see her getting her own way up front. She showed plenty of speed in the Sceptre Stakes as well, suggesting that she is still primarily a sprinting type.
Super Elegant is arguably the best-weighted runner in the field and she has claimed the notable scalp of Beach Beauty, albeit in a false-run Victress Stakes where she was receiving chunks of weight from that rival. She then finished fourth in the farcically slow-run Paddock Stakes. However, whether she really can be rated within one pound of Covenant, who is a multiple graded stakes winner, as her official mark indicates, is open to question and, while she is no slouch, she has her work cut out in trying to beat a field of this calibre.
Covenant and Welwitschia are taken to fight out the finish but Ebony Flyer is capable of running them all ragged if she bounces back to her best. She's slightly under a cloud at present, though, and may have to settle for a minor placing, tussling with Gibraltar Blue and Happy Archer.
|