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where the horse is always the hero
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Posted 2014-04-24 17:36:36  
ALL EYES ON LOUIS THE KING IN S A DERBY

Louis The King will understandably be the focus of Saturday’s big meeting at Turffontein as he bids to become only the second horse in history to land the SASCOC Triple Crown. Geoff Woodruff’s charge was hugely impressive in the first two legs of the series, annihilating his rivals on soft ground in the Gauteng Guineas and then showing he has the fighting spirit to go with his undoubted class when grinding out a much tighter victory in the SA Classic in firmer conditions. Strictly on exposed form, he is far and away the one to beat here, but the decisive factor will be how he takes to the Derby trip of 2450m, having yet to race beyond 1800m. In fact, the distance represents unknown territory for every runner in this line-up and could prove to be the great leveller that some of his key rivals will need in order to reverse the form of their previous defeats.
 
Trainer Alec Laird’s horses filled all the placings behind Louis The King in both the Guineas and the Classic and he will be aiming to turn the tables over this longer trip. As You Like is arguably the best-performed of his contingent, having finished a gutsy third in both legs of the Triple Crown thus far. He has emerged as a classy and genuine sort and has the credentials for a big showing here if he gets the trip. However, Bouclette Top, who finished fourth in both those races, may prove to be the stable elect over this longer trip. He ran on from very far back in the first two legs and gave the impression that he will relish the step up in trip, being likely to be running at them when many others are gasping for air. He looks the biggest threat to Louis The King’s Triple Crown aspirations.
 
Laird also sends out the aptly named Earl Of Derby, who floundered under a big weight in the Derby Trial. He will be happier racing at level weights here but is up in class, has shown his best form over much shorter, and has a bit to prove here.
 
Trainer Mike de Kock sends out three runners as well, of whom Ilitshe looks the pick, following his Derby Trial win. Winners of the Trial have generally failed to manage the step up in class in the Derby itself, but Wylie Hall bucked that trend last year and it would be no surprise to see Ilitshe do the same here. He’s come on in leaps and bounds with each test of stamina he has been exposed to and one gets the impression that he is the one runner, more than any other in this field, who is specifically looking for this type of trip.He is drawn in pole position and Anton Marcus is an eye-catching jockey booking, especially as the race is likely to turn into a highly tactical affair.
 
Stablemates Gone Baby Gone and Taarish have a bit more to do on exposed form and Taarish, in particular, is held by Louis The King after three downfield performances behind him. However, he is another one who seems to have been waiting for a step up to this trip and could be worth including in the larger permutations as he showed definite promise around the turn of the year.
 
Another stable that is triply represented is that of Sean Tarry, whose Fort Bellini looks a genuine threat here if he gets the trip. He was not disgraced when sixth in both the Guineas and Classic, having entered those races as a relatively inexperienced sort. He’s bound to have come on since the Classic and merits respect here.
 
Stablemates Mercado and Supertube are less easy to fancy, although Mercado has hinted at some genuine ability and was not disgraced in the Guineas.

Atomic Rush disappointed in the Derby Trial but was badly drawn that day and is probably much better than that run suggested. He's the most proven runner in the field in terms of stamina, having won easily over 2200m two runs back and has a nice draw. He could prove to be a quartet kicker.
 
Leeuloop Jet was not disgraced when running on for third in the Derby Trial and neither was fourth-placed Flight Warning,  but both face a much stiffer test here and would need to be improving at a suitable rate to challenge the bigger guns.

Judicial has had his share of problems and has failed to deliver on the promise he showed earlier in his career. If he regained top form, he could well make the frame, as he's always looked the sort who would appreciate a bit of ground, but his current form leaves him with a lot to do here.

It’s the most anticipated race of the season thus far, due to the ramifications of a victory for Louis The King. The heart will be willing him on, as racing needs champions and it would be a truly spectacular achievement if he were to pull it off. The head, however, says that he has a real race on his hands, and certainly does not look great value at the odd-on prices seen during the week, given the inevitable stamina doubts he has to overcome. With this in mind, the likes of Bouclette Top, Ilitshe, Fort Bellini and As You Like all offer serious value at their current odds and could prove to be very dangerous if the favourite fails to stay.

 
 

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