Runner by runner preview of Tuesday's Melbourne Cup. 

1. Admire Rakti
Trainer: Tomoyuki Umeda
Jockey: Zac Purton
Weight: 58.5kg
Barrier: 8
Why it can win:

Because he was awesome in the Caulfield Cup, when he proved he could carry weight (58kg) and only goes up half-a-kilo. Stable have always said he would be better second-up and much better suited on the bigger track at Flemington. Well drawn.

Why it can’t win:
Has a reputation for inconsistency, so can he string two together? Plus, horses carrying this sort of weight have a woeful record in the Melbourne Cup. It’s been almost 20 years since a horse placed carrying at least 58.5kg and the last three to attempt it have finished in the second half of the field.
-Brad Bishop

2. Cavalryman
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 3
Why it can win:

Has been in great form this year, winning a couple of Group 2s in England and a Group 3 in Dubai, so he’s proven he can travel and is twice a winner at the distance. Having Craig Williams to ride can’t hurt either.

Why it can’t win:

Extremely rare for horses who have contested a Melbourne Cup, and finished well back, to return and win. He finished 12th in 2012. At nine years of age, would also need to become the oldest-ever winner of the race.
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3. Fawkner
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Nick Hall
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 9
Why it can win:
Because he never runs a poor race. Super in the Cox Plate, which has produced more Melbourne Cup winners than any other final lead-up of late (four of the past nine, including the past two). Was one of the runs of the race last year (when sixth) and owner, Lloyd Williams, has an affinity with the race, having won it four times.

Why it can’t win: Couldn’t win it last year with 54.5kg but now has to carry 57kg – a weight that has only been carried to victory once (by Makybe Diva) since 1978.

4. Red Cadeaux
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Jockey: Gerald Mosse
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 15
Why it can win:
Because he simply loves it in Australia and has twice previously gone close to winning the Melbourne Cup, including 2011 when beaten by the narrowest margin in the history of the race.

Why it can’t win:
No horse that’s ever been beaten in the race three times has returned to win. Another who has to carry 57kg (see Fawkner) and nine-year-olds just don’t win the Melbourne Cup.

5. Protectionist
Trainer: Andreas Wohler
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 11
Why it can win:
Showed he has adapted to Australian conditions with a strong effort when fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes and reports out of Werribee are that he has thrived since. Won the Prix Kergorlay, which of late has been arguably the best overseas guide to the Melbourne Cup.Will start from the gate 11 the equal most successful barrier in Melbourne Cup history. 

Why it can’t win:
He’s quite inexperienced (nine starts) and it’s been a while since a horse who hasn’t had 10 previous starts won the Melbourne Cup.

6. Sea Moon
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 18
Why it can win:

We haven’t seen it in Australia yet, but he does have ability, as evidence by his deeds overseas. Blinkers first time might switch him on.

Why it can’t win:

Going atrociously. Melbourne Cups aren’t won by horses who go as poorly as he did at Caulfield. Barrier 18 has never provided a Melbourne Cup winner.

7. Seismos
Trainer: Marco Botti
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 1
Why it can win:
Came to Australia in good form, having won the Geoffrey Freer, and although down the track in the Caulfield Cup (15th), stable has always said that he would be better suited at Flemington.

Why it can’t win:

Looked to lack any turn of foot at Caulfield. Rare for horses who finished 15th in the Caulfield Cup to turn it around so dramatically at Flemington.

8. Junoob
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 7
Why it can win:
Was a very impressive winner of The Metropolitan two starts back in blistering time. His run in the Caulfield Cup – where he was trapped wide - was better than it looks on paper. The horse appeared gone at the top of the straight but stuck on solidly to only finish just over two lengths from the winner.

Why it can’t win:

The distance has to be a query. Also may just be a class below some of the opposition who aren’t that far away from him in the weights.

9. Royal Diamond
Trainer: Johnny Murtagh
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 6
Why it can win:
Finished ahead of the talented Dermot Weld-trained mare Pale Mimosa over 2800m in Ireland in May. Should have no trouble running out a strong 3200m and has drawn well.

Why it can’t win:

More than 70 internationals have tried to win the race without a lead-up run in Australia and only Vintage Crop (1993) has been successful. Appears the second-stringer of the two Johnny Murtagh runners.

10. Gatewood
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: William Buick
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 22
Why it can win:

Is in great form in Europe with three wins and three seconds from six starts this year. He actually hasn’t missed a place since returning from Europe following a brief with Chris Waller in 2013. Won the 2012 Geelong Cup and was one of the fancies for the Cup that year but didn’t make the field.

Why it can’t win:
Has never run over the distance and has drawn barrier 22. While he seems to be a different horse in Europe, didn’t measure up in a previous stint in Australia. No lead-up run.

11. Mutual Regard
Trainer: Johnny Murtagh
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 12
Why it can win:
Won the ‘right’ European lead-up race – the Ebor Handicap (2800m) in impressive fashion. Drawn well, appears reasonably weighted and will be partnered by multiple Melbourne Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver.

Why it can’t win:
See the other internationals trying to win it without a lead-up run – has proven virtually impossible.

12. Who Shot Thebarman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Glen Boss
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 13
Why it can win:

Is a Group 1 (NZ) winner over the distance and will be partnered by three-time Melbourne Cup winning hoop Glen Boss.

Why it can’t win:
Looks outclassed. There were plenty of far better runs than him in the Caulfield Cup.
 

13. Willing Foe
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Jockey: James McDonald
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 17
Why it can win:

Won the Ebor Handicap in 2012 and was only narrowly beaten by Seismos in the Geoffrey Freer following a 65-week spell in August.

Why it can’t win:
Again, no lead-up run in Australia. Is an eight-year-old and doubt he is on an upward form spiral. Godolphin have tried to win the Cup plenty of times but have yet to succeed. - Ben Asgari

14. My Ambivalent
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 4
Why it can win:

Has arguably the best form of all the Europeans. Finished third – beaten only two lengths – behind superstars Gentildonna and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Dubai Sheema Classic and third behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup. Barrier could help her to get a nice run and see out the distance.

Why it can’t win:
Main target was the Caulfield Cup which she missed with a setback. Distance a major query and also hasn’t had a lead-up run in Australia.

15. Precedence
Trainer: Bart and James Cummings
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 20
Why it can win:

Put the line through his last run where he was galloped on and he finished ahead of both Big Memory/Signoff in the J.R.A Cup and was the run of the race.

Why it can’t win:
Has tried three times before and has finished no higher than eighth in the Cup. Is now a nine-year-old and barrier 20 could make things tough.

16. Brambles
Trainer: Peter Moody
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Weight: 54 kg
Barrier: 21
Why it can win:

Relatively lightly raced six-year-old who ran a very good race when fourth, beaten just over a length in the Caulfield Cup. Loves Flemington, having won and placed there this campaign. Likely to go forward and make own luck from a wide gate.

Why it can’t win:
The wide barrier is a concern, as was his below par run when leading in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. He probably lacks the class of his rivals and has never gone beyond 2400m.

17. Mr O’Ceirin
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Weight: 54 kg
Barrier: 19
Why it can win:

Finished ahead of rivals Signoff and Precedence two starts ago in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley.

Why it can’t win:
Lacks the class to compete with these. Was well beaten in the Cranbourne Cup at his latest outing and simply doesn’t have the form to warrant serious consideration.

18. Au Revior
Trainer: Andre Fabre
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Weight: 53.5 kg
Barrier: 23
Why it can win:

Import with plenty of upside who ran a creditable race first-up in Australia in the Racing.com Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Has plenty of strong international form at 2400m and beyond. Wide barrier is a concern, and he is likely to have to work hard to take up his usual position near the front.

Why it can’t win:

Was a little underwhelming when well supported in MV Cup and that form is a level below many of his rivals here.

19. Lidari
Trainer: Peter Moody
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 53.5 kg
Barrier: 10
Why it can win:

Consistent galloper who, while is yet to win this campaign, has been beaten less than 2.2 lengths in each of his five starts. Was good in Caulfield Cup without ever threatening and prior to that was only narrowly beaten in the Turnbull Stakes. Has one win and three placings from five starts at Flemington. Nice weight as well.

Why it can’t win:
Has only won twice in 14 starts since arriving from Europe and while he is often not far away, lacks a killer finish in his races. Doesn’t really shape as a two-mile horse and might be just a shade below the class of horse which wins this great race.
 

20. Opinion
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tye Angland
Weight: 53.5 kg
Barrier: 14
Why it can win:
Arrived in Australia with a big reputation 12 months ago, and while he has only one win from 13 starts since, he has been competitive in some good staying races, notably the Sydney Cup and The Metropolitan. This is the lightest weight he has carried in his career.

Why it can’t win:
He can be a frustrating prospect. His best is very good, but he also tends to put in some bad runs as well. Hard to recommend off a sixth in the MV Cup at his most recent appearance and he has yet to show any form of significance in Melbourne.

21. Araldo
Trainer: Mike Moroney
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Weight: 53.5 kg
Barrier: 24
Why it can win:

Tough stayer who is rarely beaten by much and is coming off a huge run when fifth, beaten less than 1.5 lengths in the Caulfield Cup. Showed every indication he’d appreciate 3200m and is under the care of a Melbourne Cup winning trainer in Mike Moroney.

Why it can’t win:
Just one win in eight starts since arriving in Australia and that was on protest. He is a real grinder, the likes of which used to win Melbourne Cups, but very rarely do these days. Gets a tough barrier and will have to come from back and wide.

22. Lucia Valentina
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Weight: 53 kg
Barrier: 2
Why it can win:
She has been excellent this campaign, winning the Turnbull Stakes brilliantly and then charging home to finish third in the Caulfield Cup running the fastest last 200m sectional. She always acquits herself well and has just 53kg on her back, a 0.5kg weight advantage on the race favourite Admire Rakti. She has drawn well and might get an easier run than she did at Caulfield.

Why it can’t win:
She has a brilliant turn of foot, but whether that means she is suited over 3200m is debatable. She has been beaten both her goes at 2400m after winning at 2000m. The barrier could also work against her if she gets back in the field and finds traffic. Only one four-year-old mare has won this race in the past 22 years (Ethereal 2001).

23. Unchain My Heart
Trainer: David Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Weight: 51.5 kg
Barrier: 5
Why it can win:

There is only one horse in this race who boasts two wins over the track and distance. This game mare has won the 3200m Andrew Ramsden twice and gets into the race with a feather weight.

Why it can’t win:
Out of form and completely out of her depth, she is the least likely of any horse in the race to w in this. Good on her for making it, but as good a career as she has had, she is way out of her league here.

24. Signoff
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Weight: 51 kg
Barrier: 16
Why it can win:

There’s a whiff of timing about his preparation, which is eerily reminiscent of 2009 Cup winner Shocking. Like Shocking, he placed in the Herbert Power Stakes and Coongy Handicap before booking his spot in the Cup with a dominant win in the Lexus Stakes and will carry just 51.5kg (jockey Joao Moreira has been granted permission to ride 0.5kg over weight).

Why it can’t win:
The strike-rate of Lexus winners in the Melbourne Cup is not great. Twenty-eight have tried in the past 30 years for two wins. Barrier 16 not ideal for a horse who raced keenly on Saturday in blinkers for the first time. - racing.com