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Posted 2014-11-15 18:06:08  
HAPPY FOREVER LOOKING TO SPREAD THE JOY IN CAPE MERCHANTS

The Gr 2 Cape Merchants tops the card at Kenilworth on Sunday and this 1200m dash has attracted a field of 18. Run under handicap conditions, with a weight spread of 10kg spanning the field, the race looks ripe for an upset and punters will have to go very wide to feel any sense of comfort.

Happy Forever has been plagued by injury problems but trainer Joey Ramsden (pictured) and his team have done a great job in keeping him ticking over and it is to their credit that the son of Var has notched up a Gr 2 victory in the form of the Senor Santa Handicap, as well as running respectably in defeat in such Gr 1 events as the Cape Flying Championship, Computaform Sprint and Golden Horse Sprint. There aren't too many of his rivals here who can match that level of form and, with the benefit of a recent prep run under his belt (a decent third behind Asstar in a Pinnacle event over 1100m) he may be well set to notch up a second graded victory.

Trainer Mike Bass sends out three runners, all of whom have realistic chances of top honours if things go their way. Tevez is a former winner of this race and his recent form has been reasonably consistent. He's not too badly weighted in the context of his previous best efforts and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pop up again.

Hammie's Hooker is a smart and versatile mare who enjoyed a successful winter campaign in Durban, winning the Gr 2 Tibouchina Stakes and giving champion Beach Beauty a battle before going down in the Gr 1 Garden Province Stakes. However, she is fairly high up in the weights against male opposition now and she may have to settle for the placings.

Lanner Falcon completes the Bass contingent and she shaped promisingly on her seasonal debut when second to the up-and-coming Double Whammy in the Diana Stakes. She also faces the challenge of having to reproduce her best form against her own sex in open company but she does have the benefit of a nice galloping weight and should be running at them late.

Capetown Noir is arguably the country's top miler on his day but he can be a bit in-and-out and he didn't quite live up to expectations during the winter. He hasn't been seen out since finishing eighth in the Vodacom Durban July - not a bad run considering the unfavourable combination of weight, draw and distance he was up against that day, and it wouldn't be the first time a middle distance specialist has run well fresh over a sprint trip. He's something of an enigma but top class at his best and could blow them all away if he's in the mood.

Cap Alright is as game as they come and also a former winner of this race. His last run can be ignored as he dislodged his rider but he has been thereabouts in his previous efforts and he is probably the best-weighted runner in the field on his past exploits - he comes in on 52.5kg which will seem like a feather-weight after having been accustomed to lugging huge imposts over the last two or three seasons. If he gets away early, he could prove difficult to peg back.

Copper Parade found a new lease of life last season and finished off his 6-year-old campaign with two cracking Gr 1 efforts, winning the Computaform Sprint and finishing second in the Mercury Sprint. He has not raced since July but the bigger concern may be that he has to lug 62kg and concede weight down the field. Piere Strydom has a great rapport with the veteran, though, and he makes the trip down, so the pair cannot be ignored.

Asstar is a runner who is bound to attract plenty of interest as he has shown genuine promise, winning three of five career starts and beating a number of his rivals here in a Pinnacle event over 1100m last time out. He will find this much tougher but has more scope for improvement than the opposition and, racing off joint bottom-weight, could be equal to the task.

De Kock, winner of the Selangor Cup last season, looked very much a miler (at least) in the making, but he returned from a break of nearly nine months to win a handicap over 1000m in September. His subsequently failure in Asstar's Pinnacle win can be ignored as he is miles better than that and he is another one who is quite handily-weighted on his best form and could prove to be a lively threat here.

The West Is Wide has let his supporters down on a number of occasions now but he did bounce back to win comfortably two runs back, showing he retains some of his old ability. He could be one to make the quartet pay if he gets it together on the day.

Silver Bluff is another one who ran well below par in the Asstar Pinnacle event and may be worth another chance here racing near the bottom of the weights.

Daring Dave is a model of consistency but has shown his best form over 1000m and has to prove he is as effective over this trip while also handling a step up in class. Blarney Bay faces the opposite problem, also coming into the race in fine form but likely to find the six furlongs too sharp in this company.

The balance seem to have a bit of work to do on current form, but this is very much the type of race where the form book can be torn up and ejected through the window.

Happy Forever has the class to pull it off and victory for him would provide a genuine feel-good story, given the courage he has shown in battling his way through his various soundness issues in the past.  The main threats are likely to come from Tevez and De Kock but all of Cap Alright (who will seldom get an opportunity at such favourable weights), Capetown Noir and Hammie's Hooker have strong claims at their best. Luck in running is bound to play a key role, given the size of the field, and there are several others capable of getting in a blow if things go their way.

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