Japan registered a record 11 runners for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1, 2,400m), compared to registering five and not running any last year. As the fall campaign draws near, however, many have reconsidered their plans based on how their training has progressed, so now it appears that only one runner from Japan will vie for the Arc title. Nevertheless, expectations are high, especially since A Shin Hikari scored an overwhelming 10-length victory in the Prix d’Ispahan (G1, 1,800m) in May at Chantilly. This is the same course where the Arc will be held while Longchamp undergoes renovation.

Makahiki (JPN, C3, by Deep Impact) will be the first derby winner since Kizuna (JPN, by Deep Impact) in 2013 to challenge the Arc in the same year of claiming the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m). Earlier, after winning the Yayoi Sho (G2, 2,000m) for his third straight victory, the Deep Impact colt took second in his first Triple Crown classic, the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas, G1, 2,000m). Traveling well behind a fast early pace, he opened throttle from a wide turn into the final stretch to finish 1-1/4 lengths short of Dee Majesty, who ran a tactful race to hold off his rivals. In the Tokyo Yushun, Makahiki, who was racing nearer to the pace in mid-division, saved ground along the rails before demonstrating a terrific turn of speed through a narrow opening to out-duel Satono Diamond for a nose victory.

Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi, speaking in an interview, said: “The Japanese horses may have a better chance to win this year because of Chantilly’s type of course. Makahiki is not just a speedster but also a powerful colt, so I am confident that he has the stamina required to handle the deep European-style surface. He is also a calm horse, which is an advantage when having to travel.” In his G1 challenge against the world’s best, the three-year-old colt will partner with Christophe Lemaire who rode the colt twice earlier in his career. They also will collaborate in Makahiki’s overseas debut, the Prix Niel (G2, 2,400m), his prep start towards the Arc. Owner Makoto Kaneko, who was unable to claim the Arc trophy with Deep Impact, has high hopes for the legendary runner’s outstanding offspring, who will fly to France on August 19 in a quest to become Japan’s first Arc winner.

Duramente (JPN, C4, by King Kamehameha), last year’s victor in both the Satsuki Sho and Tokyo Yushun, had to cancel his Arc challenge after fractures in both legs sidelined him for the rest of his 2015 season. He made a successful comeback this February with a victory in the Nakayama Kinen (G2, 1,800m) and appeared to be in good form for his first overseas challenge in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1, 2,410m) in March. However, he lost his right front shoe during post parade and refused to be reshod in time for the start. Running barefoot, he closed in on the eventual winner Postponed (IRE, H5, by Dubawi) in the final stages but, with his usual burst of speed lost along with the missing shoe, finished second by two lengths.

Misfortune struck again in his following challenge, the Takarazuka Kinen (G1, 2,200m), where he was sixth in voting for this spring all-star G1. He demonstrated his powerful late charge from the outside to miss by just a neck, but then he lost his balance after crossing the wire and his hind leg caught his left front foreleg, causing multiple ligament and tendon injuries. Tragically denied a trip to France once again, he was retired by his connections with an announcement three days later.

Dee Majesty (JPN, C3, by Deep Impact), an outstanding colt who won the Satsuki Sho and was third in the Tokyo Yushun, is headed towards the St. Lite Kinen (G2, 2,200m) on September 18. After that, the plan is to run him in the third leg of the Triple Crown, the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1, 3,000m), on October 23. Vanquish Run (JPN, C3, by Deep Impact), who disappointed to 13th in the Tokyo Yushun despite coming off a victory in the derby trial, the Aoba Sho (G2, 2,400m), will stay in Japan for his fall campaign, as will stablemate Tosen Victory (JPN, F4, by King Kamehameha).

Yasutoshi Ikee-trained Satono Diamond (JPN, C3, by Deep Impact) finished third and second in two Triple Crown starts, the Satsuki Sho and the Tokyo Yushun, respectively, but his trainer decided that he, as well as his stablemates Satono Noblesse (JPN, H6, by Deep Impact) and Satono Rasen (JPN, C4, by Deep Impact), will pass up this year’s Arc. The reason given was the lack of sufficient time available for preparation after arriving in France. Satono Diamond will kick off his fall campaign in the Kobe Shimbun Hai (G2, 2,400m) on September 25, then aim for the Kikuka Sho.

Touching Speech (JPN, F4, by Deep Impact), who was 12th in the Takarazuka Kinen, will make her bid for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1, 2,200m) on November 13. Takarazuka Kinen 14th-place finisher One and Only (JPN, H5, by Heart’s Cry) will focus on racing in Japan this fall. Mount Robson (JPN, C3, by Deep Impact), a stablemate of Duramente, also does not appear to be making the trip to France this year.

A Shin Hikari (JPN, H5, by Deep Impact), originally not included among the 11 Japanese horses registered for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, became a possible addition after his victory in the Prix d’Ispahan. However, after following this with a disappointing sixth in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes (G1, 2,000m), he is more likely to focus on the Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1, 2,000m) on October 30 and then, before retiring to stud, aim for a repeat victory in the Hong Kong Cup (G1, 2,000m) on December 11.

2015 Horse of the Year Maurice (JPN, H5, by Screen Hero) put together a winning streak of seven—six at a mile and one at 1,800 meters—before finishing second in the Yasuda Kinen (G1, 1,600m) in June. His next start will be the Sapporo Kinen (G2, 2,000m) on August 21, where he will be partnered with top Hong Kong jockey, Joao Moreira. His performance in this first 2,000-meter test, since covering 2,200 meters more than two years and 10 races ago, will determine whether he sticks to his proven mile distance or challenges middle distances in his fall campaign.

Also starting in the Sapporo Kinen will be 2014 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks, G1, 2,400m) winner Nuovo Record (JPN, M5, by Heart’s Cry), who is planning a trip to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1, 2,000m) on November 5. Also, Copano Rickey (JPN, H6, by Gold Allure), a seven-time G1 winner in Japan, is headed towards the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1, dirt, 1,600m) on November 4 or the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1, dirt, 2,000m) on November 5. Meanwhile, Curren Mirotic (JPN, G8, by Heart’s Cry), runner-up in the Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1, 3,200m), will fly to Australia for the Melbourne Cup (G1, 3,200m) on November 1 after making his fall debut in the All Comers (G2, 2,200m) on September 25.