Vodka, the top vote-getter of the Arima Kinen for the last three years, will not run again. Neither will this year's Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner Logi Universe, last year's Japan Cup winner Screen Hero (retired), this year's Japan Cup runnerup Oken Bruce Lee or star filly Red Desire. That's five of the top 10 in fan voting who are out of the 54th running of the race also known as "The Grand Prix."
But will the Arima Kinen be any less spectacular than it always is? Certainly not. Which is why the race has the highest turnover in the world, and remains a national event like the Kentucky Derby is in the United States, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in France and the Grand National in Great Britain.
The Arima Kinen was originally known as the Nakayama Grand Prix, founded in December 1956 at the urging of Japan Racing Association president Yoriyasu Arima, who felt compelled to stage a race at Nakayama that could rival the Tokyo Yushun at Fuchu in terms of prestige and popularity. Introducing a truly novel concept at the time, he decided the field would be selected by the fans.
The first race was held at 2,600 meters and was renamed the following January after Arima passed away. The Arima Kinen was adjusted to the current distance of 2,500 meters in 1966, and began allowing foreign bred horses in 1971. The race qualified for Grade 1 status in 2007, opening up the door to as many as six entries from abroad.
The Arima Kinen begins near the end of the back stretch for a lap and a half around the inner oval at Nakayama Racecourse, where the final straight runs relatively short at 310 meters, but rises steeply over the last 200 meters. Compared to the Sprinters Stakes or the Asahihai Futurity Stakes held on the outside course, the turns are tighter in the Arima Kinen and the race tends to favor the frontrunners.
The following are the early favorites among the 32 nominations for Sunday's race. Post time is at 3:25 p.m.:
BUENA VISTA (pictured): Few would have thought she would be winless after three races this fall, but that's exactly where Buena Vista, the expected betting favorite in Sunday's race trained by Hiroyoshi Matsuda, stands. The 3-year-old filly had the second most votes behind Vodka, after winning the first two legs of the fillies' Triple Crown - the Oka Sho (Japanese 1,000 Guineas) and the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) - in the spring. Her performance had been so riveting that the Sunday Racing ownership group targeted the Arc in October, but Buena Vista came up short with just 52 kilograms in the Sapporo Kinen in late August, a loss which scrapped her plans to race at Longchamps. Then came the Shuka Sho in which she was demoted to third for interference, failing in her bid to become just the third horse ever to win the filly's Triple Crown. Tough luck continued for the daughter of Special Week in last month's Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup as long-shots Queen Spumante and T M Precure ran away with it; Buena Vista almost caught up but again settled for third, finishing out the last three furlongs in 32.9 seconds - nearly four seconds faster than that of the race.
Despite defeat, the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup underlined the filly's quality as one of the best racehorses in the country, offering more hope than disappointment for the Arima Kinen. Feeling the need for a fresh start, the owners have handed the reins to Norihiro Yokoyama, who has won the Tokyo Yushun, the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and Mile Championship this year. Yokoyama has a knack for reinventing horses, most recently and notably the 8-year-old Company, winning the Tenno Sho and the Mile Championship. While no 3-year-old filly has won the Arima Kinen in 48 years, one has to like Buena Vista's chances at 53 kilograms, even against a field as deep in talent as this one.
DREAM JOURNEY: The Takarazuka Kinen champion is poised to bounce back this weekend, when he will go back to running clockwise, having won seven of his eight victories running righthanded. Dream Journey, by Stay Gold by Sunday Silence, finished sixth in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) on the lefthanded Tokyo Racecourse, and trainer Yasutoshi Ikee came away convinced the result had everything to do with him running counterclockwise. "It's obvious now that he's not as good going to his left as he is to his right. He seems awkward when he runs, and he can't switch gears like he usually does. I don't think the pace helped either, but hey, it's all part of the game," Ikee said. In his first race of the autumn campaign, the 5-year-old Dream Journey took second to Matsurida Gogh in the Grade 2, 2,200-meter Sankei Sho All Comers with 59 kilograms. The original plan was for him to run in Hong Kong, yet Ikee had second thoughts, wanting him to run in the familiar conditions at Nakayama in the Arima Kinen with ample preparation time. Dream Journey finished fourth in the race last year, but Ikee says there's no comparison in his form from last December. "I would say he's at least twice, maybe three times the horse he was compared to last year," Ikee said.
FORGETTABLE: Trainer Yasuo Ikee's colt has been anything but his name this fall, coming off victory in the Grade 2, 3,600-meter Sports Nippon Sho Stayers Stakes at Nakayama under Christophe Soumillon, after finishing runnerup to Three Rolls in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger). The 3-year-old Forgettable is the proud product of two of the JRA's top thoroughbreds in recent times - by former Kikuka Sho champion Dance in the Dark out of Air Groove, winner of the 1997 autumn Tenno Sho - and is owned by Deep Impact's owner Makoto Kaneko. Ikee thought this exceptional blueblood would need time to fill out his frame, perhaps hitting his peak sometime next year, but Forgettable is coming into his own sooner than expected. Suspended Soumillon will not be in the irons, but has been replaced by an equally talented French jockey in Christophe Lemaire, who returns from a suspension of his own in time for the grand finale, which he famously won in 2005 aboard Heart's Cry to deal Deep Impact his only defeat on Japanese soil. Sunday could turn out be an unforgettable day for this colt who appears destined to run a big race sooner or later.
MATSURIDA GOGH: When Matsurida Gogh won the 2007 Arima Kinen as the ninth choice, the Sunday Silence son had fizzled badly in his previous race, finishing 15th among 16 in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). Eerily, trainer Sakae Kunieda's 6-year-old is coming off another next-to-last performance in the Tenno Sho last month as he heads into the final race of his career. No one will dispute Matsurida Gogh, who was fifth in the voting, is a different horse when he races at Nakayama, where he has produced eight of his career 10 wins, including six graded victories. In September, he won the Sankei Sho All Comers for an amazing third consecutive year, living up to his nickname of "Nakayama-meister." Kunieda says Matsurida Gogh has been training well since the Tenno Sho and Masayoshi Ebina, who guided him to victory in the Arima Kinen two years ago, will try to see that his partner goes out in style this weekend. Without question, the betting man will not be able to pass on Matsurida Gogh.
MEINER KITZ: Matsurida Gogh's stablemate hasn't been able to follow up on his impressive victory in the Tenno Sho (Spring) in May, when he lifted the Emperor's Cup for his first Grade 1 title as the 12th choice. The 6-year-old Meiner Kitz, by Chief Bearhart out of Takara Kanna, finished seventh in the Takarazuka Kinen, seventh again in the Kyoto Daishoten and eighth in the Japan Cup coming up from last on the long Fuchu stretch. Kunieda says Meiner Kitz will have to run a more aggressive race for him to have any success in the Arima Kinen, as he did in the Tenno Sho when jockey Masami Matsuoka made his move before the turn for home to grab the railing and hold off Al Nasrain by a neck. Replacing suspended Matsuoka in the saddle will be 20-year-old sophomore superstar Kosei Miura, who will make his Arima Kinen debut. The highly rated Miura has nothing to lose here and if he rides as Kunieda says, Meiner Kitz could surprise a lot of people, just as he did seven months ago at Kyoto Racecourse.
REACH THE CROWN: The Japanese Derby runnerup does not have fond memories of his last and only run at Nakayama, finishing 13th in the 2,000-meter Satsuki Sho in April. Both trainer Kojiro Hashiguchi and jockey Yutaka Take have admitted it was a mistake to try to hold back the 3-year-old during the trip, rather than letting him go at a pace he likes. While Reach the Crown has not won in five starts since February, the colt, by Special Week out of Crownpiece (by Seattle Slew), has clearly looked more at ease since being given the freedom to run at his own rhythm. Despite the disaster in the Satsuki Sho, Nakayama, a track which tends to favor the frontrunners becAUSe of its tight dimensions, could actually work to the horse's advantage this time. The only concern is the likes of Miyabi Ranveli, T M Precure, and Matsurida Gogh, who like Reach the Crown, prefer to drive up the pace. Take could lose control of the horse if his rivals set him off early as it happened in the Japan Cup when Reach the Crown took the bit after Asakusa Kings challenged him. With little horse left for the Tokyo stretch, Reach the Crown crossed the line ninth. But if he's left unmarked and travels without interruption on Sunday, Reach the Crown - who Hashiguchi puts in the class of Dance in the Dark and Heart's Cry - could end the year on a very positive note.
THREE ROLLS: Three Rolls wasn't among the top picks when he won the Kikuka Sho - he was the eighth choice in winning the first graded race of his career - but don't expect him to be overlooked again this weekend. There was nothing fluky about the victory, Suguru Hamanaka's mount fighting off Forgettable at the wire to seize the last race of the Triple Crown. Three Rolls, by former Kikuka Sho champion Dance in the Dark out of Three Roman, made his debut in October last year, a race that also featured Buena Vista, Unrivaled and Reach the Crown. He took fourth behind the much-hyped trio, but only length and a half out of first. As those three continued to hog the headlines through the spring, Three Rolls took his time coming into his own, a credit to trainer Kohei Tanaka's patience despite the bloodlines tempting to race him in the Classic races. The fruits of his labor all came together in the Japanese St. Leger, and the colt is ready for his next challenge. Kikuka Sho winners have always run well in the Arima Kinen and Three Rolls, who should be among the top five favorites on Sunday, will be out to prove he doesn't take a backseat to anyone, even the likes of Buena Vista, Unrivaled and Reach the Crown.
UNRIVALED: Perhaps no other horse among the 32 nominations for the Arima Kinen is in dire need of a good performance this weekend. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi's colt rose to the top of the 3-year-old class in April, winning the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2,000 Guineas) with a swashbuckling run on the stretch, a run that had jockey Yasunari Iwata raving on and on after the race. But the startling victory was followed by a disastrous 12th-place outing in the Japanese Derby, a better but unconvincing fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Kobe Shimbun Hai in September, before crumbling to 15th place in the Kikuka Sho, the worst result of his career. By Neo Universe out of Ballet Queen, Unrivaled - 11th in the fan voting - may not have to win the Arima Kinen, but will have to show he can still compete at the Grade 1 level. Time and excuses are running out for Unrivaled, who is 2-for-2 at Nakayama and perhaps the new partnership with Italian rider Mirco Demuro is just the fresh breath of air he needs. It's still early to write him off, but Unrivaled faces the toughest test of his career.
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