HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

SplashOut Cape Derby (Grade 1)

GREEN WITH ENVY had his rating increased from 110 to 119 after impressively winning the Grade 1 SplashOut Cape Derby over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. It was HLUHLUWE who was deemed to make for the most suitable line horse here and his rating remains on a mark of 111.

The Handicappers opted to use HLUHLUWE to the net 99 performance which he achieved in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas rather than his gross rating of 111. This has the effect of keeping the race to a level of 119 and not 121 as would be the case if HLUHLUWE’s gross rating was used. The Handicappers noted that the race was slowly run in the early stages and felt that this lack of a true test may have resulted in a more compact finish which could have the effect of flattering some of the lower rated horses in the Derby. Accordingly, a slightly lower level seemed to be the prudent choice here.

BEACH BOMB was not deemed to make a suitable line horse for this race as she was weighted to win comfortably off her rating of 117 and using her would mean an 8-point increase to the current level of 119. BEACH BOMB remains unchanged on a rating of 117. The Handicappers also rejected the 87 rated ORIENTAL CHARM as a probable line horse as this will reduce the level of this Grade 1 race to nothing more than a Class 4 Handicap.

Third placed ORIENTAL CHARM who beat the 111 rated line horse HLUHLUWE at level weights by 2 lengths and 4th Placed COASTAL COMMANDER who beat the 111 rated line horse by 0.50 lengths at level weights were raised to 113 and 111 respectively. This ensures that they will meet at correct handicap-terms in future and as such give effect to the rules of “Merit Handicapping”.

INFRARED and WILLIE JOHN were given partial increases from 94 to 99 and 88 to 98 respectively.

No horses received a drop in ratings for this event.

Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes (Grade 2)

Best weighted, THUNDERSTRUCK remained on a rating of 124 after narrowly winning the Grade 2 Diadem Stakes over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The ever consistent BEREAVE was deemed to make for the most suitable line horse here and he remains on a rating of 122. In rating the race this way 5th place RIO QUERARI runs to his mark of 118 and also serves as a line horse.

2nd placed FUTURE VARIETY received an increase from 106 to 118. This 3-year-old was rated to run last so there is no disputing his improvement and considering the quality of the line horses for this race the Handicappers believed there is no reason to entirely doubt the improvement showed in this Grade 2 race.

COSMIC HIGHWAY confirmed the recent improvement he displayed in the Grade 1 LÓrmarins King’s Plate by running 0.05 lengths behind the line horse BEREAVE, rated 122, and he was adjusted accordingly to a rating of 121.

The only other horse to receive an increase was WE’RE JAMMING who was raised from 110 to 113 to ensure he meets the 112 rated WATERBERRY LANE at correct weight terms in future handicaps.

No horses received a drop in ratings for this event.

SplashOut Prix Du Cap (Grade 3)

DOUBLE GRAND SLAM was adjusted from 115 to 117 after emphatically winning the Grade 3 SplashOut Prix Du Cap over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. RASCOVA was deemed to make for the most suitable line horse here and remains on a rating of 115. Second place finisher, OCTOBER MORN was increased from 112 to 115 which makes her equal to RASCOVA who she beat here at level weights. Fourth placed MRS GERIATRIX was increased to 115 from 112 due to the fact that she actually carried more weight than the first three finishers.

No other horses received increases in the race. The following horses received drops of 3 points each to their ratings. HAPPY CHANCE was dropped from 116 to 113, ASIYE PHAMBILI from 111 to 108 and GOLDEN HOSTESS from 115 to 112.

Pongracz Jet Master Stakes (Listed)

Best weighted, ROYAL AUSSIE remained unchanged on a rating of 124 after winning the Listed Pongracz Jet Master Stakes over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday.

The Handicappers were of the opinion that QUASIFORSURE made for the most suitable line horse and his rating remains unchanged on 115. In rating the race this way both the winner, ROYAL AUSSIE and the runner-up GOLD POKER GAME, actually run below their ratings in this event. PONTE PIETRA was the only runner in the event to receive an increase and was adjusted to 103 from 100.

Two horses received drops to their ratings, BARATHEON was dropped from 99 to 98 and RUNAWAY SONG was dropped to 106 from 110.

Schweppes Cape Fillies Classic (Listed)

RAINBOW LORIKEET had her rating adjusted to 96 from 90 after winning the Listed Schweppes Cape Fillies Classic over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. SUMMER LILY was chosen as the line horse here and she remains on a rating of 92. In rating the race this way CALLMEGETRIX also runs to her mark of 87 which makes her a line horse as well. 3rd placed PRINCESS IZZY was increased to 91 from 90 while the only other increase in this race went to EPIKLEROS who was raised to 89 from 83.

FATAL GEM was dropped from 94 to 92 and FAMILY POWER also received a drop of 2 points from 78 to 76.

Betway National Currency Sprint (Grade 3)

ONE FELL SWOOP remains unchanged on a rating of 99 after winning the Grade 3 Betway National Currency Sprint over 1100m at Turffontein on Sunday 25 February. The Handicappers were of the opinion that 2nd placed ZIYASHA had reproduced his 114 performance which he achieved in his last start and used that mark of 114 to rate this race. Consequently, he goes up to 114 from 112. The only other runner to receive an increase was 3rd placed CLIFF HANGER, who goes up to 108 from 105.

It should be noted that ONE FELL SWOOP ran to a considerably higher rating in her previous run in the Betway Swallow Stakes, but her increase had to be capped. See excerpt from the Betway Swallows Stakes press release:

ONE FELL SWOOP was only increased by 3 points from 96 to 99 despite running to a considerably higher level here due to the specific race conditions that state that placed horses may only receive a maximum adjustment of 3 points. This means that ONE FELL SWOOP will benefit from a 4,5kg swing at the weights with TROPPO VELOCE for a 0.10 of a length beating, and a 3,5kg swing at the weights with CULLINAN BLUE who she beat here, should they meet on Handicap terms in the future.

ONE FELL SWOOP will continue to enjoy the above benefit.

WYZEACT was the only runner to receive a drop in ratings and goes down slightly to 96 from 97.

Ibhayi Stakes (Listed)

FAIRY KNIGHT has had his rating increased to 99 from 93 after easily accounting for his rivals in the Listed Ibhayi Stakes over 1400m at Fairview racecourse on Friday, 23 February. The Handicappers were unanimous in their view that 4th placed UBISIKA made for the most suitable line horse to rate this race and he remains unchanged on a rating of 86.

The winner aside, two horses received ratings increases. 3rd placed WAZ WOUTER goes up to 87 from 85, and LEGAL THRILLER, who finished 0.5 of a length or 1 pound at level weights behind the line horse goes up to 85 from 78.

EMPIRE BLUE was the only runner in this race to receive a rating’s drop and goes down slightly to 84 from 85.

Lady’s Pendant Stakes (Listed)

THREE ROCKS remains unchanged on a rating of 109 following her win in the Listed Lady’s Pendant Stakes over 1200m at Fairview on Friday. It was 3rd placed GOLDEN PACIFIC who was used to rate this race and she remains unchanged on a rating of 101. In fact, in rating the race this way, the winner runs 3 pounds below her official mark hence her unchanged rating.

2nd placed ESTHER, who was rated to finish joint 9th with three other horses, goes up to 104 from 84. ESTHER did concede weight to both the 109 rated THREE ROCKS and the 101 rated GOLDEN PACIFIC so there is no disputing the fact that she has performed to a much higher level than her official pre-race merit rating. SUMMER ODYSSEY, who finished 0.25 of a length behind the 101 rated line horse at level weights, was adjusted to 100 from 87 while 6th place finisher, SISTER LIGHT received a 4-pound increase from 92 to 96 so that she is rated correctly with 7th placed CHERE FOR ME, who she beat at level weights by 5 points. These adjustments are deemed necessary to give effect to the rules of “Merit Handicapping”.

No runner received a drop in ratings in this race.

The Handicapping Team