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Posted 2024-09-08 21:00:40  
Is Lafferty correct to criticise the Handicapper?

Trainer Upset by Handicapper Ratings, here's a deep dive into the ratings of the two mentioned horses... 

Whilst handicappers come under constant criticism for ratings around the world, it's not normal to see one publically take on the handicapper in a post race interview.

Paul Lafferty, respected trainer and commentator on the sport, was at pains to showcase the rating given to his winner at Scottsville on Sunday.

The John Finyalson owned galloper View Of The World won again, a second time in a row after a maiden win last time out.

Interestingly, the trainer took the opportunity to criticise the handicapper in a post race interview. South Africa's chief handicapper is Lennon Maharaj and ultimately he is responsible for all ratings. Over the past few months, he has justified some of his more high profiled ratings, like those of See It Again and Sandringham Summit amongst others who have been given or not been given rises and drops. It is a collective that he uses as a justification alot of the time, rather than single races.

In the case of View Of The World, a case cannot be made for the horse as suggested by Lafferty.

The reason is quite simple actually as his horse won last one out in maiden company and backed it up with a win off that higher rating at his last start.

The fact that he had to use a 4kg Claimer to get the win is largely irrelevant as he used the same Claimer in maiden ranks to win that event. In fact, the handicapper likely underrated this horse by a point or two based on his win today.

He won by almost a length and a half, favorably drawn at 1, which gave him an edge over the wider drawn placed runners. The draw bias has proven to be a bias indeed. In his light, the 14/1 shot used every advantage he had to win. The 3 year old will surely get a ratings hike again and justifiable so.

The other example used by Lafferty, Frank Robinson's My Boy Lollipop in race 2, a maiden, is not as easy to justify. Here Lafftery may have a point. This horse has been a disappointment in his 8 starts to date based on his rating. He was given an 88 rating and then dropped to 86 this run. He was well back again today and faces another drop. It's largely irrelevant in the Maiden ranks bar to act as a guide for punters who can use it to find better value in their choices. But is his rating truly erroneous? This horse has displayed pieces of excellent form only to disappoint the next time out. He was beaten 10.10l today in yielding going. He has run poorly in yielding going once before but ran once well enough in this going.

The horse who ran 3.3l behind him at his penultimate start, before today's effort, was also highly rated and has run second three consecutive times. The horse in question being Dennis Bosch's Always Shining. Always Shining was beaten by My Boy Lollipop by 1.8l. He is rated 85 and, to date, has not won either. So the case of My Boy Lollipop being overrated must be applied to Always Shining as well. Lafferty may have a point in this case but it really is a case by case situation as these horses develop at different levels.

The other option for trainers is to start placing their supposed overrated horses in divisional races as maidens and taking on the challenge of beating winners. Thus proving the handicap either wrong or not.

No matter which way one sits on this subject, it is unfortunate but the View of the World case isn't a justifiable one, whilst there could be a school of thought suggesting the entire group of horses out of the formlines for My Boy Lollipop could be overrated.
 

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