The Mercedes Benz Gold Vase (Gr 2) is always a tricky race and this year's edition is no exception. There's no standout performer in the race and a fair bit of guesswork is required, especially when assessing the chances of those runners attempting the 3000m trip for the first time, writes Mark Anthony.
With this caveat in mind, it may be worth taking the rather unusual step of siding with a pair of 3-year-old fillies in the form of Equiparada and Sweetie Pie.
Both hailing from the Mike de Kock yard, the pair met earlier this month in the Gold Circle Oaks against their own age and sex, and it was Sweetie Pie who ran out a convincing winner with Equiparada having to settle for third. Sweetie Pie clearly relished the step up in trip and is reasonably well-weighted here, so she could well go close again. There are grounds for believing that Equiparada may have the edge this time around, though. The Argentine-bred filly has plenty of stamina in her dam line at any rate and it showed in the SA Oaks where she stayed on for a close third in very wet conditions, despite racing handy throughout and hitting the front 800m from home. She dropped out from a poor draw in the Gold Circle Oaks and made up plenty of ground in the straight, sticking to her task all the way to the line. She's now 2kg better off with Sweetie Pie and looks better placed to handle the extra distance here, so she could be the one to follow.
Staying with the fillies, Sangria Girl is holding form very well and the J & B Reserve Stayers winner ran a respectable race in the Gold Cup when staying on for fifth. She's drawn in pole position and while the draw is not such a deal-breaker over this marathon trip, it does help if one does not have to expend energy early on to get a good position. Glen Hatt takes the ride and they have a definite winning chance.
Noblewood missed the Gold Cup, a race in which he had previously finished second and he's clearly encountered some problems this winter, judging by an uncharacteristically poor performance in the Betting World 1900 in May. He is a very useful sort at his best and a return to form would see him right in the thick of things here.
Hospitality has good staying form in Cape Town but was somewhat disappointing in the Gold Cup as he never looked like getting to his preferred front-running position. In the end, he could only stay on past some tiring horses for sixth. It was not a bad performance by any means but one has to wonder whether he just found the Greyville track running too quickly for him on the day. He's reasonably weighted, all things considered, and he would have a chance at his very best.
Golden Parachute attracted a fair amount of support in the Gold Cup but he faded out and he is starting to run short of excuses. He has shown enough in the past to suggest that he can challenge for honours here and Jeff Lloyd is a past master when it comes to these long distance races, so this may yet turn out to be the Montjeu gelding's day in the sun.
Starzene faded right out in the Gold Cup, where she was drawn widest of all, but Weiho Marwin's mare is better than that and has some good staying form to her name in Gauteng. She has an outside place chance at her best.
Refined In Fire was suddenly stepped up to two miles in the Glenlair Trophy at Arlington and took to the trip like a duck to water as he pulled off a narrow victory. He looked hopelessly outclassed in the Gold Cup but didn't run the worst race in the world when staying on for eighth and who knows, he may just be capable of sneaking into the minor placings here.
Two Strikes is another one who has taken to staying distances, having won twice since stepping up in trip. He's up in class here but is lightly-raced and races off joint bottom weight. Despite being in under sufferance, he may yet be improving ahead of the handicapper and could be one for the quartet.
Chico Azul stays well but has had a busy schedule of late and is likely to struggle against a field a lot tougher than what he's used to facing, while Royal Captive is inconsistent but could be thereabouts if he puts it all together on the day.
Speed For Gold could be best of the rest. He came in for some support in the Gold Cup and although predictably finding things a bit too hot for him, he wasn't totally disgraced and is yet another one to keep an eye on in this wide-open contest.
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