When Igugu contested the Vodacom Durban July last year, various theories were put forward by her detractors as to why she couldn't win. In fairness, two of the issues raised were valid enough at the time: she was taking a steep jump in class, relative to the opposition she had beaten previously, and she looked rather stiffly weighted for a 3-year-old filly, writes Mark Anthony.
It's now a matter of history that the daughter of Galileo went on to land the big prize with some aplomb and, having proven her class conclusively, there won't be too many doubters when she lines up for the Gr 1 J & B Met over 2000m at Kenilworth on Saturday.
Igugu has only had one run this season, coasting home in the Ipi Tombe Challenge, which was quite literally a Sunday afternoon stroll for her. She wasn't tested there and was subsequently scratched from the recent Paddock Stakes, which was intended to be her final prep run for the Met, following a virus-related scare. It's made for a less than ideal build-up but such is her class - and she's also best in at the weights under the conditions of the race - that she should still prove equal to the task. By all accounts, she is over the problem that saw her scratched and, if anywhere near her formidable best, is going to take a power of beating in the Cape's premier race.
In addition to being ideally distance suited, Igugu has a further weapon in her armoury that none of her rivals can match: she is able to set her own pace if the dreaded Cape crawl should materialise so, from a tactical point of view, jockey Anthony Delpech should have all bases covered. Don't be surprised to see the reigning Horse of the Year gallop her rivals into the ground from the front, if the situation calls for it.
There is, of course, no such thing as a racing certainty and while Igugu is a confident selection, cognisance must be taken of some more than decent opposition waiting to pounce if she should fluff her lines. The one who may end up getting closest to her is the almost perennially disappointing Run For It. Justin Snaith's charge had no luck in running in the July and, indeed, has been plagued by misfortune in many of his big race efforts. However, he caught the eye when third in this race as a 3-year-old last season despite nothing going right for him: he raced wide throughout and was completely unsuited to the slow early pace. He was also unlucky in defeat when going down narrowly in the Daily News 2000 and Cape Guineas. That sort of form marks him out as one of the better performers of his generation and ironically, it is the presence of such a formidable rival as Igugu that may offer him his best chance for glory, as he is almost certain to get the strong pace he needs to deliver his best.
Many will be understandably put off by Run For It's shocking last run in the Peninsula Handicap, but he's much better than that. He raced far too handy and was once again undone by the early crawl. Bernard Fayd'herbe knows all about winning the Met and one expects that he will revert to more patient tactics here. It will be no surprise to see the pair charging through late from off the pace.
Stablemate Gimmethegreenlight earned a well-deserved Gr 1 win when flying up late to win the Queens Plate last time out, settling doubts about his ability to get a mile. Whether he can reprise that sort of effort over an additional 400m remains to be seen, especially if the pace is on, and it really is going to be a case of "wait and see". He is without doubt one of the class acts of the race and will get every assistance from Piere Strydom, whose mastery in the saddle had much to do with that last victory. If not undone by stamina limitations, he'll be right there.
Bravura and Tales Of Bravery are probably tired of the sight of each other, having gone head to head on a number of occasions since the 2010 Green Point Stakes. Their connections will also have less than fond memories of last year's Met, where the two found themselves reluctantly sharing the lead with nothing else willing to go out an ensure a proper pace. Tales Of Bravery has generally been the one to finish in front but there has been very little between then and Bravura has had some valid excuses, notably last time in the Queens Plate where he was relegated late to fourth by his arch-rival, who ran on very well from off the pace. However, Bravura raced wide throughout that day and understandably tired in the last furlong. There's no doubt that both turned in cracking trials for the Met on that day and they are entitled to respect here. However, both have drawn wide, which dampens enthusiasm for their chances of actually winning and chances are that they will once again fight it out for the placings.
The Apache earned his champion 3-year-old title with a string of fine performances last season and he's looked sharp enough this term, although failing to pick up a graded prize thus far. He was lumbered with a big weight when fourth in the Summer Cup and, more recently, once again found himself conceding weight to the winner when touched off by Smanjemanje in the London News Stakes. He's the type of horse who is best when running at them off a strong pace and he must have a chance of making the frame here.
If The Apache has a chance, then so must Ilsanpietro and Smanjemanje, as the three of them have been clashing regularly of late without much between them. Smanjemanje has, in fact, beaten the other two twice, but found them finishing slightly ahead of him in the Summer Cup. He's won two graded races from four starts since being gelded and shown that he can hold his own among the best middle distance runners in Gauteng. That sort of form hasn't always translated too well down in the Cape in recent years, but he's a gutsy sort and could be worth a place bet at long odds, as well as inclusion in the larger quartets.
Ilsanpietro can be considered the best stayer in the country (he's certainly been the most consistent) over the past 18 months or so but he's shown the ability to drop down in trip this season, most notably when second in the Summer Cup. One can't see him winning here against so many middle distance specialists, but he may well end up making the running if the situation calls for it and he could stay on into a minor placing if things go his way.
Chesalon is not certain to run at the time of writing but if fit and well, is another one with claims for a place. He showed promise during his 3-year-old campaign last season and delivered on that when winning the Premier Trophy last month. He then finished a creditable fifth in the Queens Plate, a race where the mile would have been too sharp for him, given the quality of the opposition. It was a perfectly respectable Met trial, though, and young Karis Teetan is riding at the top of his game. He's badly drawn, however, and will need his share of luck in running.
Beach Beauty has been attracting some quiet attention and it's not inconceivable that she could sneak into the frame if the cards fall for her. She hasn't been able to reproduce her impressive 3-year-old form this season as she's been caught out in consecutive slow run races, most recently when a reluctant leader in the Paddock Stakes and being run out of it late by the promising Thunder Dance. Beach Beauty does have a serious turn of foot, though, and if she gets a decent pace on Saturday, she would have an outside place chance.
Astro News looked more a sprinting type earlier in his career but seemed to enjoy the step up in trip when finishing well for second in the Peninsula Handicap. He now faces a huge step up in class and cannot be considered a credible winner, but he does have the benefit of carrying just 52kg and enjoys the services of a top judge of pace in Richard Fourie. For those looking to go a bit wide in the quartet in the hope of a big payout, he may be the type of horse who sneaks into fourth place and boosts the dividend.
The rest of the field is not made up of slouches by any means, all of them having graded victories to their names and the exception, Super Storm, being Gr 1 placed. However, none of them appeals as being able to make an impression against this level of opposition.
The stage is set for a cracking race and a fitting climax to the summer season. Picking Igugu is an easy enough task but the quartet won't be quite as straightforward as there a number of runners with chances of at least making the placings. Run For It is given a chance to bounce back in second place with Tales Of Bravery, Bravura and - if he stays - Gimmethegreenlight disputing the remaining placings.
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