Let’s get accurate readings

CONFUSING: WE GET PENETROMETER READINGS OF 21 IN WINTER AND AFTER HEAVY RAINS IN SUMMER

Green Plains looks to be the best bet of the day.

Piere Strydom

This column has always been about giving punters better insight into the world of horseracing. It’s never been about me personally, but I do use my views and experiences to explain what we go through and specifically, how a horse’s individual behaviour can affect its chances.

The trainers and jockeys often get unfairly criticised. The “Grandstand Jockeys” frequently blame us when they lose their money and I have to explain how horses sometimes behave to the detriment of their own winning chances.

As I have said previously, horses are not cars. You don’t merely have to press a pedal to get a reaction – they have minds of their own.

I have always tried to do straight talking about issues and give my honest opinion. That has often been to the detriment of my own career as some people don’t like the views I express.

People think it sounds negative but it is the truth as I see it. I always feel the accuracy of information is vital for punters to make a decision and in that regard one of my particular bug-bears has been the issue of penetrometer readings.

Those readings tell us how soft or hard the going is and what I find confusing is that we will be racing in the middle of winter where we have not had rain for three months, the grass cover is coming apart, and we get an official reading of 21. On Thursday, when we raced at the Vaal, the reading was 21 again. It seems impossible that on a track, where just a few days back some trainers were unable to work their horses because it was waterlogged in places, that we get the same reading.

Commonsense alone tells you it is impossible for the conditions to be identical.

Hopefully there is a system we can work on in the future and we can form a better way to record and give out more accurate information.

In some countries the tracks do not vary as much because their conditions do not change much. But on the Highveld we have extreme conditions in either direction, dry and hard in the winter and often wet and soft in the summer, and we need to have penetrometer readings that reflect that.

Today we are on the Inside track at Turffontein. There aren’t many big fields so we should not have too many hard-luck stories, although the draw remains an important factor.

Race 1 is for work riders and my first choice is UFO. She had a bad draw last time and finished her race off very well. Her dangers are Comet Crystal and Oh So Cold.

Race 2 is a Maiden Plate and my first choice is Shanghai Tang. He ran a really good race last time out after a rest so now, jumping from No 1 draw and having better fitness, he must be the horse to beat.

His dangers are Liberado and my ride, The Makwakkers.

Race 3 is handicap for fillies over 2000m. It is a small but competitive field and you will need a few horses for the Place Accumulator. I’ve been riding Glamorous Scandal and I would like to have been on top again today but I cannot make the weight. I thought she would not see out 2600m last time but she showed she could stay. She is 5.5kg better off with Emily Hobhouse who beat her last time so she must have a big chance. The two finished well ahead of the third-placed runner.

However, there are other races where she is held on form so you need to include other runners. Consider Seeking Gold, Emerald Bay and Azkur, but there are others with chances as well.

Race 4 is an Assessment Plate which suits the best-handicapped runners. That honour goes to Railtrip who is weighted at least 3.5kg ahead of the field. She could easily be a banker in all bets but if you look at the comments on her last few runs she seems to have issues. Therefore, include Aurelia Cotta in the PA.

For the Pick 6 the only other possible winners are Miss Sabina, Santa Vittoria and Out Of Sight.

Race 5 is a Maiden Plate and my first choice is Mighty Rock. I’m always a bit sceptical when horses run well in a work riders’ race because often that form does not work out. But I felt he ran in quite a strong maiden field and therefore I will make him a PA banker.

One could consider also him as a Pick 6 banker but for the reasons mentioned you could consider Blame Game, Humour Me and The Bee Eff Gee.

Race 6 is a handicap and my first selection is Yamoto. The danger is Arlingtons Revenge who ran in the strong Guineas field last time and went to the front. Those two should be good enough for the PA.

Others to consider for the Pick 6 are Zeal And Zest and Kings Cup.

Race 7 is Pinnacle Stakes and your best-handicapped runner should win. That is Green Plains who is coming off a rest, which is a concern, but the fact she is well handicapped and is drawn No 1 over this course and distance gives her more of an advantage. She is a banker in all bets.

If you are concerned about her fitness then the only other consideration is Schippers.

Race 8 is another Assessment Plate and the best-weighted runner is Orpheus. He could quite easily be a banker in the Pick 6 and Place Accumulator but I’m a bit concerned about this distance as it could be on the short side for him. But even in a small field there looks to be quite a lot of speed, which should work out well for him.

For the Pick 6, as Orpheus has respiratory issues, you could consider Epic Dream. He is a nice-looking horse and could enjoy the extra distance.

Race 9 is another Assessment Plate and you need to consider the best-handicapped runner. My first choice was Irish Wonder Girl who has nice form and is drawn No 1. Unfortunately, she has not raced who a few months and that is a concern. The highest rated horse is Xplosive Kiss who has been sprinting but after not racing for a while, she is now going over 1500m, which is a concern.

Another well handicapped horse is Vi Va Pi Pa but she is not a good starter and takes a while to get going so this course might not be ideal for her. Therefore, I have settled on My Dream Chaser as my first choice. For the PA put her in with a couple of those mentioned while for the Pick 6 put in all of those mentioned.

Best bet

Green plains

Vale bet

YAMOTO

From Phumelela Publishing