The Durban July enters this year's renewal having reset its Pattern race assessment cycle after narrowly remaining within the Asian Pattern Committee's accepted tolerance last year. While the race is not currently facing an immediate review of its Grade 1 status, its Annual Race Rating remains an important measure of quality, with each renewal contributing to the race's long-term standing within the Pattern race programme.

Under Asian Pattern Committee guidelines, an open Grade 1 race is expected to achieve an Annual Race Rating of 115. A tolerance of three points is permitted, meaning an Annual Race Rating below 112 falls outside the accepted standard.

Annual Race Ratings

How the Annual Race Rating is Calculated

The Annual Race Rating is not determined by the merit ratings allocated to horses on race day. Instead, it is calculated using the end-of-season ratings of the first four finishers, with those four ratings averaged to produce the official figure used by the Asian Pattern Committee.

As a result, the finishing order carries considerable significance. The quality of the field provides the opportunity for a strong rating, but it is the end-of-season ratings achieved by the first four home that ultimately determine the race's Annual Race Rating.

The 2024-25 Durban July demonstrated just how fine the margins can be. Its Annual Race Rating of 112.75 was only 0.75 of a point above the minimum tolerance, allowing the race to remain within the accepted standard and resetting the sequence of below-tolerance ratings.

Understanding the Assessment Process

A single below-tolerance rating does not place a race at risk of losing its Grade 1 status. Under the Asian Pattern Committee's evaluation process, a race must record an Annual Race Rating below 112 for three consecutive renewals before its classification is referred to the Committee for assessment. It is only then that a decision is made on whether the race should retain its Grade 1 status or be downgraded.

Equally important is that the sequence is broken if the race recovers. An Annual Race Rating of 112 or higher resets the consecutive count, meaning another three successive below-tolerance ratings would be required before the race again becomes eligible for review.

The process differs for races seeking promotion. A race aiming to move from Grade 2 to Grade 1 must consistently achieve or exceed the 115 benchmark over the required assessment period before it can be considered for an upgrade. Simply remaining within the three-point tolerance is not sufficient. The average rating of the race calculated over the last 3 years and the annual race rating must equal or exceed 115.

Why This Year's Result Matters

Although last year's Annual Race Rating removed the immediate prospect of a review, the figures produced by this year's first four finishers will again become part of the race's long-term Pattern record.

That also places greater emphasis on the strength of the horses contesting the finish. A highly rated contender has the potential to lift the Annual Race Rating if it finishes in the first four. Conversely, replacing a 121-rated horse such as Choisaanada with a runner rated 106 reduces that potential. Should one or more of the lower-rated runners occupy a top-four placing, the remaining finishers would need sufficiently high end-of-season ratings to ensure the overall average remains competitive.

While one renewal alone does not determine the future of the Durban July's Grade 1 status, every Annual Race Rating becomes part of the race's ongoing assessment. As a result, the quality of this year's first four finishers will again be closely watched when the end-of-season ratings are compiled.