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Posted 2014-07-24 22:18:56  
Gr.1 Gold Cup: Alexander May be the "Wild One" in competitive field

 The curtain comes down on the KwaZulu-Natal Champions Season with the running of four Gr 1 events at Greyville on Saturday, spearheaded by the country's premier event for stayers, the Elan Property Group Gold Cup over 3200m. The combination of a marathon trip and large field means that the race is usually a lottery and favourites have tended to go missing more often than not. While this year boasts the presence of a genuinely classy stayer in Hot Ticket - the country's champion-elect in the staying ranks - he faces a stiff task under top weight of 60kg and while he was brilliant in carrying the same weight to victory in the Gold Vase over 3000m at this track, the extra furlong will provide an even more searching test for the son of Silvano.

1 HOT TICKET: Has won four features over ground this season and, regardless of the outcome here, looks the front-runner for the Equus award in this category as no other stayer has come close to showing such consistency and dominance at graded level. Genuinely brilliant weight-carrying performance when winning the Gold Vase, but meets many of his victims from that race on slightly worse terms here and will have to be at his absolute best to complete the rare Vase-Cup double. Will be in the thick of things but might just be edged out by one or two better-weighted rivals.

2 RUN FOR IT: The most accomplished runner in the field, having gone close in such plum Gr 1 events as the Vodacom Durban July, J & B Met, Daily News 2000 and Cape Guineas, and it is something of an injustice that he has never quite managed to win a big one himself. Current form uninspiring and has always been something of an enigma but if he stays the trip - his first attempt beyond 2200m - he would have an undeniable chance at his best.

3 PADDY O'REILLY: Smart stayer whose career has been curtailed by injury. Relatively handily-weighted here and is holding form really well for a gelding about to turn eight, running a cracker under 64kg when second to Crown Of Gold (received 6.5kg) in the Glenlair Trophy over this trip. Definite chance if he brings his A-game to the track.

4 SHOGUNNAR: Has proved his credentials by placing in such Gr 1 events as the Daily News 2000 and Summer Cup and has a clear chance is he can reproduce that form here, but is not the most reliable runner around and has struggled to find the winner's box in much weaker company than this. Great run under big weight when third in the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup over 2400m at this track but then flopped in Tabgold 2200 next time, so it's hard to know what to expect here.

5 GOLD ONYX: Veteran campaigner who ran a cracker when third in the Tabgold 2200 on Vodacom Durban July day. Has the class to make an impact in this line-up but previous form suggests he is best over somewhat shorter than this marathon trip.

6 MASTER SABINA: Has a touch of class about him and bounced back to form with good win in the Tabgold 2200. Nice draw and Anton Marcus aboard, but completely unknown quantity over this distance, his first essay beyond 2200m. Chance if he stays.

7 JEPPE'S REEF: Wasn't winning out of turn last year, having finished on the fringes in two previous runnings of this event, and is very well-weighted for a past winner of this race. Sees out the trip better than most, but currently off form and it remains to be seen if he can turn it on again on the big day.

8 CROWN OF GOLD: Has regained the winning thread in Port Elizabeth but his previous attempts in this sort of class have been indifferent and has a bit to prove here. Having said that, he's handily weighted and, having got his confidence back, could be worth including in larger trifectas and quartets.

9 CANTERBURY TALE: Seems to have crept in under the radar, but is a serious contender over this trip, having finished third in this race last year and won the Gold Bowl prior to that. Two fair runs since returning from a bleeding episode and seven-month break and Weichong Marwing riding for Mike de Kock is an eye-catching engagement. Will be cherry ripe now and is one for the short-list.

10 SERISSA: Bounced back to form when almost stealing the Cup Trial from the front, but performances on either side of that run have been below-par and hard to see him making an impact here.

11 GOTHIC: Consistency not his strong suit and disappointed in the Gold Vase following two very good efforts in the Highland Night Cup and Lonsdale. Should have the run of the race from a good draw and could pop up if he's in the mood, but difficult to recommend with any great confidence.

12 WILD ONE: Wasn't far off the best 3-year-olds of last season, running well in such races as the Dingaans, Gauteng Guineas and Daily News 2000. Took a while to hit top form this season but that changed when he was stepped up in trip, producing immediate results when winning the Lonsdale and finishing a close third to Hot Ticket in the Gold Vase. A pound better off with Hot Ticket now and looks the one to beat at these weights.

13 WAVIN' FLAG: Has been underestimated more than once, only to confound the pundits, and one can't argue with gallant efforts in the Lonsdale (fourth) and Gold Vase, where he almost nabbed Hot Ticket close to home. If he can maintain that level of performance, will be on the premises once again.

14 ASH CLOUD: Won SA Oaks in fine style and confirmed her liking for a stamina test when second in the Betting World Oaks against year-older Dylan's Promise. However, that one then failed in the Gold Vase, indicating that the fillies' form does not stack up that well in open company and she would appear to have a lot to do against these older, battle-hardened male rivals.

15 ALEXANDER: Has had an eye-catching preparation for this race, winning the Highland Night Cup, and running two fine races in defeat in the Lonsdale and Tabgold 2200. That last effort, over a trip short of his best, really made one take notice and he is very nicely weighted here. Looks set for a big effort here.

16 MAGIC SMOKE: Has been a revelation since stepping up in trip, completing a four-timer when winning the Gold Bowl and turning in a satisfactory prep for this race when sixth in the Gold Vase. Chance at these weights but the concern remains that the short Greyville straight is not in her favour and she may get going too late once again.

VERDICT: A typically open Gold Cup but, strictly speaking, this race should not produce an upset in the sense of a complete no-hoper coming through. The problem, though, is that the majority of the runners have decent claims on their best form and narrowing it down to a handful of contenders is no easy task. Hot Ticket's sheer class means that he will surely be in the shake-up but, at the weights, he may have to settle for the placings behind Wild One, who seems to have found his forte as a stayer and looks well-weighted on his best form. Alexander and Canterbury Tale also have strong winning claims, while Paddy O'Reilly and Run For It (if he stays) are also in with a shout on their best form.

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