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Posted 2016-10-26 06:52:02  
Analysis and Selections for Launceston, Australia

Launceston hosts another night racing meeting this Wednesday, serving up another 8 competitive races for punters to sink their teeth into. The rail goes out 3m after racing in the True position last week and with only the odd shower forecast we should see the first genuinely firm surface here this season.

 

Race 1 6:25pm Prospect Market Place Newsagency Maiden/Class 1 (1600m)

 

Big field here but not many looking to apply pressure up front. Expect Mac ‘N’ Muhcu to take up the running and he should get his chance to bowl along. A few of these can look to box seat, namely Totally Wicked (should it begin better), Intriguingly, Union Boss, Geegees Lillybet and Stem Cell can work forward from a wide draw. Favourites Zipped Up and Saint’s Quest may settle a bit closer now they step up in trip if the pace is slack early.

 

Saint’s Quest (1) is racing in good form and is ready to tackle the mile again after a relatively soft win last time out. Had one try over this trip late last year which was a failure after he raced forward which is a query, but he is in much better form this time around and looks to be settling much better in his races. His draw is a little tricky if they race in a bunch on a muddling tempo but Ganderton has been riding him well all prep and may slot him in. If he can he looks hard to beat.

 

Zipped Up (11) did a good job after racing wide at Devonport before going to Hobart last time and annihilating a plain maiden field by 12 lengths on heavy ground. Will find this much more competitive and gets back onto firmer ground which is an unknown, but is suited by the rise in distance. Should get a nice run from an inside draw and must rate as a leading chance.

 

Strathalbyn (2) wasn’t bad last time from a wide draw when only a few lengths behind Into The Night and now gets to his right distance range. Many of his best runs have been over the mile and he generally races well at this track despite his poor stats. Has a jockey change to an in-form Troy Baker but will have to go back again from the draw. Expect to see him rattling home late and he’s a winning hope.

 

Aussie Alice (5) appreciated getting back onto the turf last time when only beaten a tick over two lengths in the same Into The Night race and is also look to get to the 1600m. She does prefer the sting out but the firmer ground isn’t a deal breaker and she did run 2nd over this course behind Geegees Gran Lodge on dry ground. Drawn to get a cheap run for Siggy Carr and may even end up on speed if she begins well. Definite chance.

 

Mac ‘N’ Muhcu (8) has been racing in improved form lately on wet ground but gets back on top of the ground here. Gutsy effort last time when 2nd behind Island Tiger but this looks to have more depth. He may get a good run in front which looks his major advantage here and he may bob up at longer odds.

 

Next best in a very open race Intriguingly (12) (racing well on wet ground in easier company, gets in light and can get a good run from an inside draw) and Union Boss (3) (nice return to form last time, first go mile but looks like it will suit.).

 

Verdict: Very even race here to start the night so inclined to look for those a bit longer in the market. Saint’s Quest (1) and Zipped Up (11) are in good form coming off maiden wins but do make the jump in grade here. Won’t be scared to try a couple at longer odds here in Strathalbyn (2) and Aussie Alice (5) who find their right race and should get their chance.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 2 units to win on Strathalbyn (2) and Aussie Alice (5).

 

Race 2 7:05pm Deloraine Newsagency Fillies & Mares Maiden (1200m)

 

Another big field and looks to be reasonable speed here. Gemini and Divine Strategy are capable of vying for the lead, while the newcomer Gee Gee Rich Ruby has showed plenty of early speed at the trials and may look to overcome her wide draw with speed. Gee Gees Talk Fest and Dad’s Girl can kick up from inside draws to send these leaders along a bit quicker also. All should get their chance.

 

Gemini (11) was heavily backed first-up when 3rd behind Amaword but found the last bit a bit tough over this trip. The second horse there Khatun won last week so the form is looking quite strong from that race and they ran solid time. Should strip much fitter for that effort and is suited staying at this course second-up. Should get across into a good position near the lead and doubt she will run into one like Amaword here. A leading chance.

 

Divine Strategy (3) gets onto the turf for the first time after a couple of solid runs at Devonport behind Snowing Sun and Canam. Getting out to 1200m doesn’t look to pose a problem and she has the early speed for Wong to try and overcome the wider draw. Bit unknown how she will handle the grass but has done enough at both starts to suggest she is a genuine winning hope in this.

 

Gee Gee Rich Ruby (10) is a newcomer who has had three trials and the most recent of those when the blinkers were applied was most impressive. That was on heavy ground but was comparable to how some of the good sprinters trialled that day. Wide draw may be an issue with speed drawn underneath her but she does look to have the early pace to give her the chance to get across. Watch the market with her and if fancied she can win.

 

La Sylphide (13) was beaten a considerable margin on debut behind Angel Of The Abyss but made up a ton of ground in good fashion at the finish after being hampered early and having to make her run from last. Will have derived plenty from that run and had a quiet trial since to improve her barrier manners. Siggy Carr sticks with her and drawing out should suit. Probably has a task ahead of her but showed there is ability there.

 

Gee Gees Talk Fest (4) is an honest on-pacer who may be better suited getting onto firmer ground here. Has been beaten comfortably at both runs this time in but was only a few lengths behind Gemini last time and meets her 4.5kg better. Form on dry tracks here has been respectable and she should get every chance in the run. Has reasonable place claims.

 

Next best Aggie (6) (resumes after two fair efforts at Devonport and has first go on grass here).

 

Verdict: Looks three standout chances here, ahead of the backmarker La Sylphide (13). Lean to Gemini (11) to improve with the run under her belt and she has proven form on the turf but concede genuine chances to Divine Strategy (3) and the newcomer Gee Gee Rich Ruby (10).

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 4 units to win on Gemini (11).

 

Race 3 7:40pm Trevallyn Newsagency/Post Colts, Geldings & Entires Maiden (1200m)

 

No genuine leader engaged here but expect Gee Gees Free Hero may look to hold the lead from gate 1. Killin Falls and Steel Dan showed speed at the trials as did the newcomer Classic Western so expect them to land in the first half of the field. The rest all look to race behind the speed so those landing near the lead may be advantaged.

 

Gee Gees Free Hero (8) is a promising 3yo who did everything but break his maiden status at his first preparation. Form around the likes of Chillout, Hard Empire and subsequent Victorian winner Moonlites Choice is very strong for this grade. Drawn to lead here from the inside gate but ideally won’t want too much pressure from his outside being first up at 1200m. Class horse of the race but maybe a tad vulnerable late if a couple of these want to go quick early.

 

Killin Falls (2) showed some ability in his two starts at his first preparation, both run over this course. Resumes here but trialled nicely last week and may well have come on after seeing that effort. Well drawn to race near the favourite and should be in the firing line for a long way.

 

Steel Dan (6) has his first run for Adam Trinder here and had a wind operation prior to arriving in the state. Has shown glimpses of ability racing in Victoria at the lower grade provincial tracks but has proven himself over this trip and on firm ground. Trial wasn’t bad over a month ago and may be much fitter here than he was there. Looks to have the speed to put himself into the race and if he has market support he should run well.

 

Biscay Barb (7) is another horse resuming here after a consistent first campaign predominantly on the Tapeta at Devonport. Strength of those maidens are not that of the top picks here but he looks a type to improve with maturity and did have market support at many of his runs. Inside draw may give him the chance to settle closer than he usually has and any positive market moves should be respected.

 

Classic Western (1) is a well bred gelding who has taken time to get to the track but makes his debut here as a 4yo with one trial under his belt. Looked to have some speed early there and wasn’t disgraced in a trial run in above average time. Wong may find a good spot near the lead from his good draw which would give him his chance if good enough. Another one to respect the market with.

 

Next best Saalim (5) (impeccably bred gelding who showed a bit at his first prep, suited this trip fresh, ideally wants further).

 

Verdict: The 3yo Gee Gees Free Hero (8) does look very hard to go past here if he has come on at all from his first prep. First-up no trial at 1200m will keep me out of the real shorts and there are genuine market watches on a number of these but he still appeals as top pick.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 6 units to win on Gee Gees Free Hero (8).

 

Race 4 8:20pm newsXpress George Town Class 5 Handicap (1200m)

 

I’m Wesley goes to the front here and looks to get it pretty cheaply. Hello Gertie can work forward but is unlikely to apply any real pressure, while Caffeine Hit, Geegees Brightstar and Wanaea (blinkers on) are most likely to take the sit. Hard to see the backmarkers get into the race with the favourite dictating proceedings.

 

I’m Wesley (1) has done all his racing at Devonport this preparation and strung wins together at his last three starts, the latest in track record time over subsequent winner Teriki. Has placed twice over this course in three tries in open 3yo grade last season, the one miss being a 4th in the 3yo Cup. Has plenty of weight here but tuned up with a recent trial in slick time and should get every chance up front. Looks very hard to beat.

 

Caffeine Hit (3) got onto slightly better ground last time than his wet track wins at the start of this preparation and ran a very good race when 3rd behind Teriki. That form ties in pretty well with the favourite here and she may be better suited sitting a bit closer to the speed here at a slightly slower tempo. Could well end up on the favourite’s back from the inside draw and will be strong at the end of the 1200m. If she sticks with him when he sprints she is a genuine danger late.

 

Geegees Brightstar (2) resumes from a long spell here with a slick trial under his belt when 2nd to Hellova Street in Hobart. Fresh form isn’t bad and has the strength to cope with 1200m first-up. Loves this track having won all 5 races here and hasn’t missed a place over this distance. Has a touch of quality about him and can show up fresh.

 

Hello Gertie (6) is racing in incredibly consistent form and did a great job last time when sticking on for 2nd behind Speckie after racing wide throughout. Racing well on wet ground but firmer track poses no issues. This looks her toughest test so far but from a good spot in the run and being down in the weights she gets her chance to prove herself. Will be in the mix.

 

Next best Speckie (4) (big win first up, doubt he will get race run to suit this time) and Wanaea (5) (mixes her form but has blinkers on and has the ability).

 

Verdict: Very hard to go past I’m Wesley (1) here. Respect for his main rivals but he looks like getting everything to suit.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 8 units to win on I’m Wesley (1).

 

Race 5 9:00pm newsXpress Newstead Class 2 Handicap (1200m)

 

Exclusive Saturday can hold the lead from an inside draw here but expect him to be joined by Greensborough pushing on from wider out. Meteor Strike and Gee Gee Sun Valley can take up good spots but there is room there for one to be ridden with intent to take up a spot near the lead. Think the on-pacers will get a comfortable enough run to be advantaged.

 

Greensborough (1) was a strong winner fresh over this course in C1 grade on wet ground. Stable had queries on the conditions there so reasonable to expect he can improve again on firmer ground. Has the speed to overcome a wide draw and racing on speed should be a bonus in this. In nicely with McCarthy’s claim and is a horse on the up. Leading chance in a good race.

 

Qui Samer (8) is a noted wet-tracker who has raced very well without winning this prep. Was very unlucky last time behind Before All when he couldn’t get clear in the straight until the race was over and he did a good job to only be beaten a length. Drawn inside to get a good run with cover and his dry track form is better than may be expected, with a good 3rd on firm ground to kick off this prep. Ready to win if the luck goes his way in running.

 

Meteor Strike (6) is a lightly raced 5yo with a stack of ability who did a good job first-up at Devonport when forced to race wide throughout. Ideally drawn to box seat here and it was only 3 runs back that he ran 2nd behind Partenza over this course in a fast, pressure race. Up in grade but rarely runs a bad race and he has genuine claims here.

 

Exclusive Saturday (2) had every chance racing outside the leader last time over this course but tired late to get nosed out by the roughie Before All. May be better for that run considering it was his first over this trip but he didn’t finish far in front of his rivals here after having the right run and is unknown on the firmer ground. That said, he can get a good run here again and should be in the mix again.

 

Gee Gee Sun Valley (10) was forced to race wide last time behind Before All but wasn’t too far away at the finish after only dying on her run late. Has run some good placings over this course and looks better suited here with a claim for Victor Wong from a better draw. With less pressure in this she can find a good spot near the lead and she isn’t without a chance.

 

Next best Cameo Kiss (5) (well supported fresh but got well back and lost all chance from there, may be a tricky ride for young Philpot and better suited with sting out).

 

Verdict: Competitive race this. Qui Samer (8) is crying out to win a race and despite firmer ground this looks pretty suitable. Meteor Strike (6) has promised a lot in his short career and this might be where he starts to deliver. Happy to play around these two but give genuine hopes to the top 5 picks here.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 3 units to win on Meteor Strike (6) and Qui Samer (8).

 

Race 6 9:30pm Nextra Kings Meadows News Benchmark 62 Handicap (2100m)

 

Very little natural speed engaged here. Diamond Cutter may roll forward at his first run over this distance this prep while Northern Command can again go forward after working around the field last time. Big Pegg may take up a forward position but the rest of these prefer to get back. Spots near the lead are up for grabs and those on-speed should be advantaged.

 

Island Tiger (4) has been a big winner on wet ground at two of her past three starts in Hobart in easier grade. Steps up in company here but finds a relatively winnable BM62 and ran a good 5th last time she saw this track in the Thousand Guineas. Has only had one try over this trip as a 3yo when beaten under 4 lengths in the Strutt Stakes and it looks it will suit her this time in. Back onto dry ground doesn’t look an issue on her form last prep. Interesting booking of Muhcu with Pires sticking with the stablemate Gwemrae. Interesting runner, obvious winning chance but this is considerably different circumstances to her recent wins.

 

Gwemrae (1) comes right back in grade here after chasing home the promising Accounted Four at her past couple. Gets a big weight rise as a result of that and has to carry 60kg, but David Pires has elected to stick with her despite that. Will find this much easier and worth noting she ran an excellent 2nd over a mile and a half earlier in the year when carrying 59kg. Big chance despite the big impost.

 

Treat Me Right (5) broke through for Team Wells last time over this course when she made ground from back in the field to narrowly beat Rialto Jess. This is much harder but her effort there was good off a muddling tempo. That run over the trip should bring her on for this and she looks cherry ripe for a crack in the harder grade. On the up and a definite chance.

 

Remorse (8) is another who has been chasing home Accounted Four at her past couple of starts and wasn’t far behind Gwemrae last time. With Steph Thornton’s claim here she meets Gwemrae a whopping 8kg better this time around. Has only raced on wet tracks since joining the Brunton stable but both wins earlier in her career were on dry ground and she did win on good ground at Morphettville over 2600m in BM82 grade. Stays all day and finds a suitable race here so she looks a value chance despite the 2 from 49 strike rate.

 

Big Pegg (2) won well three starts back in this grade over 2100m in Hobart on wet ground before being another of the beaten brigade behind Accounted Four at her past couple. Looks like getting a good run near the speed which looks to be a bonus. Appears to have trained off a little so needs to turn her form around a bit here but is capable at her best.

 

Next best Diamond Cutter (3) (been a little flat at last two runs on turf, mainland form over this trip not hopeless, ability to go forward can help).

 

Verdict: She may have 60kg but having proven she could carry similar with some success in the past, Gwemrae (1) appeals here with the drop in grade. Also looking closely at Remorse (8) who finds something pretty suitable and gets her best chance to win a race this prep.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 4 units to win on Gwemrae (1) and 3 units to win on Remorse (8).

 

Race 7 10:00pm Advocate Newspaper Class 1 Handicap (1400m)

 

Not a lot of early speed engaged here so wouldn’t be surprised to see Mel Loves Vodka to roll to the lead from her outside draw. Slinky Malinky, Amaword and maybe Kirribilli Kid are most likely to push forward, while Gee Gees Cool Gal, Invoice and Life’s Quest have shown themselves capable of going forward in the past. Have to think those who land near the lead will get every chance.

 

Amaword (3) was a dominant winner here first-up in maiden grade a fortnight ago. Overcame a wide barrier there and raced away at the finish suggesting the step up in distance is only going to suit him better here. From a better gate he can get a gun run on speed again and gets his chance to make the jump in grade. Going places and looks hard to beat.

 

Gee Gees Cool Gal (4) is a consistent mare who hasn’t been far away at her last 3 starts in this grade. Should be able to find a good spot around midfield from her middle draw and she placed here over this course last start. Has only won 1 from 20 which is starting to become a concern but firmer track is no problem and she has only missed a place over this trip once in four tries. You know what you will get from her and she’ll be right around the money again.

 

Speed Force (2) was well backed first-up when he ran on for 2nd behind Into The Night over this course after getting a long way back in the run. Only other run over this course was his maiden win last preparation. Racing pattern may be an issue again here without great pressure expected up front but if he gets to the outside when the on-pacers have done a bit of work he can swamp them late.

 

Life’s Quest (1) has continued to improve since they started riding him off the pace and he ran a good 4th behind Into The Night in this grade last time. Finished alongside Gee Gees Cool Gal and Speed Force there so the form obviously ties in nicely for this. Draw looks awkward if they go back again but the opportunity is there to push forward to overcome it. Right in the mix but doesn’t quite have the same killer punch as the favoured runners here.

 

Mel Loves Vodka (9) gets back up to the 1400m here, a course over which she broke her maiden last season in impressive style. Forgive her Tapeta runs and her recent form is quite consistent on wet ground. Should roll along in the lead here which she likes to do and and gets in very light with Barr’s claim. Definitely a blowout chance to go all the way in front.

 

Next best Slinky Malinky (10) (not bad fresh, good draw, light weight, can go forward, not without some hope).

 

Verdict: Amaword (3) caused a stir with his impressive maiden win and can make it two on end here in what is a relatively even race outside of him.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 8 units to win on Amaword (3).

 

Race 8 10:30pm Examiner Newspaper Benchmark 72 Handicap (1400m)

 

With the scratching of Miss It And A Bit there is a major lack of natural speed here. Alilad looks the leader rolling forward from his wide gate while Sentry Duty won’t be far away. The pressure looks minimal and we might see a muddling tempo and a race of tactics as a result, so surprise tactics on one of the backmarkers won’t shock.

 

Magnasa (2) didn’t have much go his way last time over this course after a strong win at Devonport over subsequent winner My Paige Three. May have similar issues again here from the outside gate getting back in a race with no pressure but if the inside is chopping up he is probably ideally drawn. Has a big finish when ridden right and is up to this grade. Genuine danger if he can get the right run into the race.

 

Sentry Duty (6) ran well over this course last time when 2nd behind Maccy Fields, beating home Magnasa in the process. From an inside draw he looks like getting a really soft run which may stamp him as the main danger. Does like the softer ground but capable on dry. Good booking of in-form Baker and stays down in the weights. Gets his chance if good enough.

 

Shiralee (4) ran home strongly first-up behind Before All in an on-pace dominated race in what was an impressive return. Suited by the step up in trip but finds a harder race here and one where the on-pacers look to get their chance. Had a good staying 3yo season including a Derby placing which stamped him with a touch of class but didn’t quite live up to that last prep. Can go on from first-up effort but tempo of this may make it hard for him.


Tycoon Navigator (3) ran well resuming in a fast race behind Teriki where she had no hope the way the race was run but she did enough late to say she’s come back in good shape. Step up to 1400m is clearly up her alley but she may have trouble getting back off another leader-dominated tempo. Has won over this course and comes into calculations if the swoopers are featuring late.

 

Next best Alilad (7) (this grade tends to find him out but he prob won’t get a better run ever) and Prominent Star (5) (didn’t get into the race last time, gets down in weights and likes this track but this grade will test).

 

Verdict: Very tricky race to end the night. With no great opinion on how the race will be run, happy to stay with Magnasa (2) who can show up with a bit more luck in the run. That said, it looks the type of race where just about anything could happen.

 

STAKING STRATEGY: 2 units to win on Magnasa (2).

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