Post positions for the 152nd Kentucky Derby have again brought historical bias into sharp focus, with long-term data from Churchill Downs offering a clear lens on which runners may benefit—or be compromised—before the gates even open.
Post Position Data
| Post |
Starter |
Record |
Win % |
ITM % |
Last Winner |
Last ITM |
| 1 |
Renegade |
96-8-5-5 |
8.3% |
18.8% |
Ferdinand (1986) |
Lookin At Lee (2017) |
| 2 |
Albus |
96-7-6-13 |
7.3% |
27.1% |
Affirmed (1978) |
Sierra Leone (2024) |
| 3 |
Intrepido |
96-6-8-8 |
6.3% |
22.9% |
Mystik Dan (2024) |
Mystik Dan (2024) |
| 4 |
Litmus Test |
96-5-6-4 |
5.2% |
15.6% |
Super Saver (2010) |
Danza (2014) |
| 5 |
Right to Party |
96-10-8-4 |
10.4% |
22.9% |
Always Dreaming (2017) |
Audible (2018) |
| 6 |
Commandment |
96-2-8-3 |
2.1% |
13.5% |
Sea Hero (1993) |
Good Magic (2018) |
| 7 |
Danon Bourbon |
95-8-7-6 |
8.4% |
22.1% |
Mandaloun (2021) |
Journalism (2025) |
| 8 |
So Happy |
95-9-5-5 |
9.5% |
20.0% |
Mage (2023) |
Mage (2023) |
| 9 |
The Puma |
92-4-6-8 |
4.3% |
19.6% |
Riva Ridge (1972) |
Hot Rod Charlie (2021) |
| 10 |
Wonder Dean |
89-9-6-11 |
10.1% |
29.2% |
Giacomo (2005) |
Forever Young (2024) |
| 11 |
Incredibolt |
85-2-6-4 |
2.4% |
14.1% |
Winning Colors (1988) |
Code of Honor (2019) |
| 12 |
Chief Wallabee |
81-3-3-4 |
3.7% |
12.3% |
Canonero II (1971) |
Angel of Empire (2023) |
| 13 |
Silent Tactic |
79-5-5-7 |
6.3% |
21.5% |
Nyquist (2016) |
Nyquist (2016) |
| 14 |
Potente |
69-2-6-6 |
2.9% |
20.3% |
Carry Back (1961) |
Essential Quality (2021) |
| 15 |
Emerging Market |
64-6-2-1 |
9.4% |
14.1% |
Authentic (2020) |
Authentic (2020) |
| 16 |
Pavlovian |
53-5-3-3 |
9.4% |
20.8% |
Sovereignty (2025) |
Sovereignty (2025) |
| 17 |
Six Speed |
46-0-1-2 |
0.0% |
6.5% |
— |
Forty Niner (1988) |
| 18 |
Further Ado |
38-2-4-0 |
5.3% |
15.8% |
Country House (2019) |
Country House (2019) |
| 19 |
Golden Tempo |
32-1-1-1 |
3.1% |
9.4% |
I’ll Have Another (2012) |
Baeza (2025) |
| 20 |
Fulleffort |
19-2-0-1 |
10.5% |
15.8% |
Rich Strike (2022) |
Rich Strike (2022) |
Historical Bias and Structural Realities
The long-term data reinforces a familiar pattern: the rail remains a difficult place to win. Post 1 has not produced a Derby winner since 1986, a statistic that continues to shape interpretation of Renegade’s draw. Notably, several other positions have endured even longer droughts. Post 14 has gone 65 years without a winner, while post 17 remains winless in 46 attempts—a significant data point for Six Speed.
Context is critical when assessing these figures. Not every Derby has been run with a full field, which naturally inflates the relative success of inside draws over time. In smaller fields, each post carries a higher theoretical probability of success compared to the 20-horse configuration that defines the modern race.
Outside Draws Gaining Relevance
Recent history points to a shift in practical advantage. Nine of the last 15 winners have broken from post 13 or wider, a trend that underlines the importance of avoiding early congestion. This is particularly significant given that post 20 holds the highest win percentage (10.5%) despite limited representation, reinforcing the value of a cleaner trip over ground-saving tactics.
That trend places runners like Fulleffort and Emerging Market into a more favorable analytical position than their wide draws might initially suggest.
Key Statistical Outliers
Post 5 stands out as the most consistently productive gate. It leads all positions with 10 winners and has maintained a strong in-the-money strike rate. Its recent record adds further weight, having produced a top-five finisher in every Derby between 2012 and 2019. Right to Party inherits that statistical advantage.
Post 15 has also delivered in the modern era, producing multiple winners in the last decade, including Authentic in 2020. Emerging Market benefits from that profile, particularly in a race where tactical positioning often outweighs theoretical bias.
Also-Eligible Impact
An overflow field introduces an additional layer of complexity. Four runners sit on the also-eligible list, with entry contingent on scratches. Should the field contract, horses drawn outside any withdrawal will shift inward, altering the tactical landscape and potentially reshaping perceived advantages.
Race-Day Implications
The data does not dictate outcomes, but it frames probability. Six Speed faces a historical barrier yet to be overcome, while Right to Party aligns with one of the most productive stalls in Derby history. Renegade must contend with a rail draw that has consistently tested even elite runners.
Those patterns set the stage, but as ever at Churchill Downs, execution under pressure will decide whether history holds—or shifts again on the first Saturday in May.
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