The Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday carries a first prize of £1,000,000, with the race scheduled for 16:00 on good to soft ground. Aidan O'Brien saddles three of the fourteen runners, and the market has his chestnut Benvenuto Cellini at the head of affairs — though the race around him is genuinely competitive.

Benvenuto Cellini (2/1, Stall 12) is the clear favourite and the one his rivals must find an answer to. After finishing third to Hawk Mountain in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster last season — arguably a more meaningful effort than his winning one the month prior in a weak renewal of the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown — he returned this term to win the Chester Vase under a penalty by four and a quarter lengths. The opposition there was modest, his stablemate Proposition finishing a distant second, but O'Brien has spoken about him in the most glowing terms, describing him as an incredible mover in the mould of his grandfather Galileo. Whether that assessment translates to Epsom form remains to be seen, but few will take him on with full confidence.

Item (7/2, Stall 3) is the most straightforward case for the opposition. Andrew Balding's unbeaten Frankel colt handled a wide draw on debut at Kempton before making all under a penalty at Bath, then sat out the Futurity Trophy on heavy ground before returning this season to beat Action in the Dante at York — a little fresh but ultimately clear of his six rivals alongside the runner-up. His connections acknowledge some pedigree-based stamina questions over a mile and a half, but the Dante form is solid and he enters with more racecourse credibility at this level than most.

Pierre Bonnard (5/1, Stall 8) has the profile of a horse the race has been built around. Wins at Dundalk, Newmarket and the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud established him as one of O'Brien's leading Classic prospects last season, but two starts this term have produced no further victories. His second to James J Braddock in the Leopardstown Derby Trial was an improvement on his reappearance, and the suspicion is that the step up in trip here — combined with this week's rainfall at Epsom — will unlock more. He is reunited with Christophe Soumillon, who partnered him to success at Saint-Cloud and finished second in last year's Derby on Lazy Griff. A St Leger pedigree is in the family, but connections have clearly had Saturday's race in mind for some time.

Maltese Cross (9/1, Stall 1) has been quietly consistent throughout. A battling debut second at Ascot on soft ground was followed by a tenacious win at Newmarket in September, and he has carried those same qualities into this season — winning at Newbury before landing the Lingfield Derby Trial in a manner that left his connections more satisfied than his reappearance had. Jockey Tom Marquand has stated that both course and trip suit the colt, whose pedigree supports that view. He has operated slightly under the radar relative to the market principals, but the Lingfield Trial form — which also features Bay Of Brilliance — is live form for Saturday.

James J Braddock (10/1, Stall 13) is trained by Joseph O'Brien and carries a progressive profile. A six-length success at the Curragh on his second start was followed by a fifth in the Ballysax, from which he appeared to learn considerably — he beat Pierre Bonnard in the Leopardstown Derby Trial last month, with Endorsement only half a length back in third. The form is not startling, but he shapes as a horse who will be suited by the step to a mile and a half, and dismissing anything from his trainer's yard at Epsom would be unwise.

Bay Of Brilliance (12/1, Stall 9) did everything asked of him last season, winning at Goodwood before dominating at Redcar under a seven-pound penalty, and he pushed Maltese Cross all the way in the Lingfield Derby Trial on his return. A half-brother to Absurde, who won the Ebor, Chester Cup and County Hurdle, he has the temperament and the pedigree to handle Epsom without issue. The Lingfield runner-up spot is not a position from which horses traditionally dominate this race, but his profile is that of a genuine participant rather than a makeweight.

Ancient Egypt (14/1, Stall 10) was expensive, promising, then briefly embarrassing before reasserting himself. After winning his first two starts at Beverley and Goodwood, he finished last of the field in the Royal Lodge — a performance his subsequent listed win over ten furlongs at Newmarket last month rendered irrelevant. Notably, connections bypassed the Dante entirely, given that the previous two winners of that Newmarket listed contest finished down the field at York shortly after. His dam won over ten furlongs and is a sister to Midday, a Group 1 winner over comparable distances, which provides genuine confidence in his staying the trip. His patient preparation has the look of a campaign managed with Saturday firmly in mind.

Action (16/1, Stall 11) is a horse of two halves. Genuine talent surfaced when he split Hawk Mountain and Benvenuto Cellini in the Futurity Trophy on testing ground, but a tongue-tied reappearance in the Classic Trial produced nothing. His Dante run was considerably better — a front-running second to Item with Christmas Day well beaten back in third — and as a close relation of last year's Derby winner Lambourn, the step to a mile and a half in rain-softened conditions represents an ideal scenario on paper. Whether he reproduces his best form consistently remains the question.

Christmas Day (20/1, Stall 5) won the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in April to complete a hat-trick, having shown tenacity to win the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes the previous autumn. His Dante run was a flat effort despite starting favourite, unable to build a meaningful challenge, but his trainer will point to both the longer trip and softer ground here as factors more in his favour. He has ability; the consistency of its appearance has been the issue.

Rebel Rocker (100/1, Stall 14), trained by Faye Bramley, progressed from his Kempton debut to split Saxon Street and Balzac in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom — a less fashionably bred runner who has done nothing wrong within his limitations. Stamina among his siblings suggests the step up in trip could bring improvement, but the gap to the principals is significant. Balzac (150/1, Stall 2) has twice finished third to Maltese Cross and has ground to make up on Rebel Rocker from the Blue Riband Trial, form since muddied by the subsequent disappointing efforts of the winner Saxon Street. A Taste Of Glory (150/1, Stall 7) won a Brighton maiden and a Lingfield handicap off 80 — the fourteen-length last in the Lingfield Derby Trial last month confirmed his ceiling. Alderman (200/1, Stall 6) is winless in three maidens and takes his place on the widest of outside chances. Poker (200/1, Stall 4) cost 4.3 million guineas and is yet to win in three starts, his most recent effort a distant second to Bay Of Brilliance — though his breeding, out of a sister to the 2012 Oaks winner Was and from the family of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, means an Epsom breakthrough cannot be entirely dismissed, however unlikely it appears.

The draw is worth noting — eleven of the last thirteen Derby winners came from stall seven or higher, which works against Maltese Cross in stall one but benefits much of the remainder. Benvenuto Cellini is likely to shorten further before Saturday, and the combination of O'Brien's record, the colt's physical profile and the softening ground makes him a formidable proposition. But Pierre Bonnard, patient and now meeting conditions that suit, may be the one the market has slightly mispriced — a horse who has been pointed squarely at this moment since last autumn, and who arrives with Soumillon aboard and rain on the ground.