Japan Racing Association racing sees 2025 out with a triple whammy, with two Grade 1 flat races and a top-level jump race staged over the weekend of Dec. 27–28 at Nakayama Racecourse.

The second of those headline events is the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, a race that puts the spotlight firmly on emerging talent with a 2,000-meter test for 2-year-old colts and fillies.

This year’s renewal has attracted 19 nominees — all colts — vying for 18 starting berths. The winner will earn JPY70 million, with the total purse exceeding JPY152 million.

Last year’s winner Croix du Nord arrived unbeaten from two starts over 1,800 meters at Tokyo, including a victory in the Grade 2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes. This year’s field lacks a Grade 2 winner but does include two Grade 3 scorers in Shonan Gulf and Justin Vista, both expected to be among the leading betting choices. Ivy Stakes winner Anduril and the consistent Badrinath, with two wins and a second from three starts, are also likely to feature prominently.

The Hopeful Stakes is unique among juvenile Grade 1 races in Japan in offering a true test for youngsters inclined toward longer distances. It often provides an early indication of which horses may develop into serious contenders for the following season’s classic races. Most notably, it serves as a key steppingstone to the Grade 1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), which is run over the same 2,000-meter distance at Nakayama.

Although the race dates back to 1984 under various names — most recently the Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes — it has carried the Hopeful Stakes title since 2014. It was elevated to Grade 1 status in 2017 and is now the final of the year’s three juvenile Grade 1 events, all held in December. The other two are the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (1,600 meters, colts and fillies) and the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (1,600 meters).

The Nakayama 2,000 meters presents a demanding challenge. Starting on the inner course near the top of the stretch, runners soon encounter an uphill climb beginning roughly 200 meters before the finish line. The gradient continues through the first bend and into the backstretch, rising to a height of about five meters, before turning downhill and then climbing again in the home straight. It is a layout that often tests stamina and balance rather than favoring pure speed.

Run on Saturday, the Hopeful Stakes follows the prestigious Nakayama Daishogai steeplechase and is Race 11 on a 12-race card. Post time is scheduled for 15:45, five minutes later than the standard Grade 1 slot.

Leading contenders

Justin Vista
Unbeaten in two starts, Justin Vista is one of only two graded-stakes winners among the nominees. After winning his debut at Kyoto in mid-October, he returned six weeks later to capture the Grade 3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes over 2,000 meters, unleashing an eye-catching late burst to defeat fellow Hopeful candidates Ask Edinburgh and Winners Nine. A son of Saturnalia — the 2018 Hopeful Stakes winner — Justin Vista is already a big, powerful colt at close to 520kg, yet remains agile with notably smooth action. He ships east from Ritto for the first time, and how he handles that trip will be key. He ranks second-fastest on race-time figures among the entries and recently impressed trainer Tatsuya Yoshioka with a sharp 10.8-second workout. “It’s not a number you see often,” Yoshioka said. “His footwork has gotten lighter compared to his last start and he’s showing improvement.”

Anduril
A striking black colt with a 2-1-1 record from three starts, Anduril returns from a listed Ivy Stakes victory over 1,800 meters at Tokyo on Oct. 18. That effort followed a five-length maiden win and highlighted his versatility, as he raced prominently rather than settling back as he had on debut at Hanshin. His late acceleration remains a major asset, evidenced by a final three furlongs in 32.8 seconds in that debut. Also by Saturnalia and based at Ritto, Anduril faces no obvious concerns with direction or travel, and while this will be his first attempt at 2,000 meters, the distance appears well within reach. Yuga Kawada is expected to take the mount.

Shonan Gulf
The Harbinger-sired Shonan Gulf boasts arguably the strongest résumé in the field after winning the Grade 3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes in early September. That followed a devastating seven-length debut victory at Hakodate. In the Sapporo Nisai, his performance was authoritative, sweeping down the outside from off the pace to collar frontrunner Gene King late. Both wins came over 1,800 meters, but his blend of speed, strength and adaptability suggests an extra 200 meters should pose no problem.

Badrinath
A first-crop son of five-time Grade 1 champion Contrail, Badrinath has generated plenty of interest despite a relatively low-key start to his career. He holds a 2-1-1 record and captured the listed Hagi Stakes over 1,800 meters at Kyoto on Oct. 26, having previously broken his maiden over 2,000 meters at Hanshin. Trained at Ritto by former jockey Mikio Matsunaga, he makes his Nakayama debut but has already shown he can travel, having raced well at Niigata.

L’Avenue
Lightly raced but highly intriguing, L’Avenue announced himself with a dominant five-length debut win over 1,800 meters at Tokyo on Nov. 8. By Lord Kanaloa and out of the American-bred mare Contested, his pedigree suggests more depth than might be expected at first glance. Contested was a sprint champion but also a top-level mile winner on dirt, while Lord Kanaloa is by King Kamehameha, a source of classic stamina. L’Avenue is a half-brother to Gibeon, who finished a close second in the 2018 Grade 1 NHK Mile Cup. He has looked sharp in training and recently worked alongside Arima Kinen hopeful Admire Terra, drawing clear late.

Others to note

Gene King has yet to finish outside the top three in four starts and was beaten only a neck by Shonan Gulf in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes. Nearly four months on, his action remains sharp.

Noche Cerrada owns a 3-1-1 record from three starts and impressed when quickening strongly in the Kigiku Sho, a 2,000-meter event at Kyoto.

Forte Angelo won his debut over 1,800 meters at Nakayama and later showed strong late speed in the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu. Like his sire Fierement, he may improve significantly with time, and Nakayama is effectively home ground.

Winners Nine has raced exclusively over 2,000 meters and, while only sixth in the Grade 3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes last time, earns credit for proven form over the Nakayama 2,000 meters against open-class company.

Ask Edinburgh, from the Ritto yard of former jockey Yuichi Fukunaga, brings experience with five starts already under his belt. He has recorded two wins and a second, most recently finishing competitively in the Kyoto Nisai Stakes, and is battle-hardened for such an early stage of his career.